Forecasts and a spell

Its a challenge that Khole has come to relish in her nearly two decades at IMD. So when she peers into complex graphs,decodes seemingly impossible peaks and troughs,you know she has the best chance of cracking that monsoon mystery.

The connect the Met department has with every sector of life is what made me opt for meteorology, says Khole,a physics graduate who went on to do her PhD in meteorology,her topics being El Nino and Southern Oscillations and the variability of the Indian monsoon.

Kholes grasp over the subject becomes evident as you watch her,equally at ease while addressing a packed hall of Met scientists as she is while breaking down jargon for the media.

Khole usually begins her day with a morning walk before reaching office at 9.30 a.m. She begins by looking up charts to issue the mandatory 8.30 a.m. forecast for the countrythis forecast usually goes out by 10 a.m. She also checks the previous evenings weather charts across the country and collates data from a French work station that helps as an additional tool for weather forecast.

The 8.30 a.m. forecast is the countrys prime-hour forecast and Khole prepares for it by analysing the weather charts,looking at satellite images on her computer,and interpreting various numerical models across the world. Khole comes out with a final report around 10 a.m.

The department gets data from over 500 surface observatories across the country.

The office of Director,Weather Central,gets busier with every passing hour. With loads of calculations and detailed charting,officials feverishly go through charts while tracking the southwest monsoons path.

The monsoon months keep us busy. We have to track its movement in great detailfrom the onset to the interstate onsets and even the journey and the breaks in the monsoon path. The forecasts are generated and even updated on the Government of India website, says Khole.

Khole and her team then sit around to assess wind pressure,rainfall,maximum and minimum temperatures,cloud cover and visibility. Charts,satellite photographs and 3D images spill over. An assessment of the southwest monsoon is drawn up and is conveyed to the six regional centresDelhi,Kolkata,Mumbai,Chennai,Nagpur and Guwahatithrough telephone calls and the National Weather Forecast Centre in Delhi. Before noon,Kholes team gets in touch with forecast agencies across the country and their feedback is factored in.

Just when it gets a bit too overwhelming,Khole says she is used to such situations,rain or no rain. Like during the 2010 Commonwealth Youth Games in Pune or the Commonwealth Games in Delhi,when the administration would constantly turn to the Met department for hourly updates. In November 2009,when the President of Indias Sukhoi flight took off from Pune,we had to give a detailed weather status, she says,adding VVIPs often demand such forecasts.

Kholes team now has to assess the weather for 36 subdivisions in the country. This is for the All India weather bulletin that is out at 1 p.m. every day. They look at charts that detail the spatial distribution of rainfall,satellite images and data from doppler radars installed at various places.

The 1 p.m. bulletin is followed by a quick lunch,followed by work on the All India Weather summary. Temperatures and rainfall,local forecasts,and rainfall analysis are checked again with the help of charts and models and the hardcopy is readied before 3 p.m., says Khole,who can hardly take a break from attending calls and assessing charts and graphs. The hard copy is readied and signed by the deputy director general before it is uploaded on the website.

Then comes the hard task of attending to queries from various state governments about the movement of the monsoon. There are queriesranging from the basic to the bizarre from state agriculture departments,private companies,the general public and the media. We follow a standard operating procedure and there are lot of technological terms which have to be simplified as we talk to people, she says.

During the monsoon season,the Met department also has to watch out for cyclonic movements and depressions which can cause an unexpected bout of rain. All events have to be keenly followed so that we are able to alert the government. This is our main role, says Khole.

Towards late afternoon,there are more meetings before the 5.30 p.m. local forecast which has to be issued on the website.

Around 6.30 p.m.,Khole packs up for the day,though there are days she gets back for the 8.30 p.m. forecast. We have to be alert,24215;7, she says.