Poll vaults

Today we will know which political party holds sway over large swathes of the Hindi heartland. Counting begins early for the assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Delhi and Mizoram. Except for Mizoram, the other four states have typically seen the Congress and the BJP square off for a straight fight. As leaders of the two coalitions in the Lok Sabha, the two parties will see in the results much more than the sum of individual performances in each state. Since by a quirk of scheduling, these four assembly elections have for some time now been followed by the general elections, the results are typically seen to be indicative of what8217;s to come.

Reality has, of course, not adhered to easy connections. In the winter of 1998, the BJP was trounced in all states Chhattisgharh was then yet not a separate state, failing even to prevent Digvijay Singh8217;s Congress government in Madhya Pradesh from returning to power. But a year later in a snap general election, the BJP-led NDA was returned to the Centre. In the winter of 2003, the BJP swept Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, while the incumbent Sheila Dikshit government retained Delhi for the Congress. Six months later, the Congress-led UPA was in government at the Centre. Predictions will be made after today, but recent experience shows how flawed it can be.

This week also, Parliament meets. The tenor of proceedings will in all probability be influenced by the election results. But it would be callous and self-serving if MPs did not heed the extraordinary context of what could be possibly this Lok Sabha8217;s last meeting. The Mumbai terror strikes demand a bipartisan discussion on internal security. As does the financial crisis, which continues to extract a toll around the world.