Plus ccedil;a change8230;

French Socialists came back from dead in the second round of parliamentary elections. Ironically, this may not be good for Socialists

French electors often like to surprise political pundits, politicians and themselves. They renewed with this tradition on Sunday8217;s parliamentary elections when against all odds and predictions, they gave a boost to the Socialist Party while President Sarkozy8217;s UMP lost a number of seats held in the previous assembly. Everybody was expecting a powerful 8220;blue wave8221; or even a tsunami of conservative MPs. And indeed, for the first time in 29 years, the ruling party has retained its majority in the National Assembly 8212; but not with the expected landslide. And in a humiliating setback for Sarkozy, Alain Juppeacute;, number two in the government and minister of a new high-profile mega-ministry for the environment, transportation and energy, lost to a Socialist. The former prime minister will therefore step down, as cabinet ministers were appointed on the condition that they win their local races.

There seems to be three reasons for this surprising result. First of all, voters8217; fatigue and their historically low turnout, partly due to the feeling that everything was decided in advance. Second, public fears regarding a much-criticised proposal to increase the value added tax on goods and services. Third, the fear of a lack of checks and balances if Sarkozy was given an overwhelming victory.

The results8217; first message is that the French people did not wish to give a blank cheque to Nicolas Sarkozy. The formidable momentum of his victory has not been halted, but certainly restrained. The opposition will be more vocal, the president and his government need to be careful in their approach. Of course they hold a majority in Parliament enabling them to implement the promised packaged of reforms. The National Assembly will hold a special summer session. It will then pass a number of major bills on taxes, labour rules, university, immigration and crime. Sarkozy will proceed with his campaign promises but the battles ahead may be tougher than foreseen as the Left may be more vocal.

And indeed, on Sunday evening, there was an obvious sigh of relief on all left-wing faces. The foreseen humiliation did not happen. The Socialist Party has even increased its seats by an astonishing 25 per cent. But those unexpected results cannot mask the reality: the Left has resisted the blue wave, but once more, it has lost. The Communist Party, once a great force in French politics, suffered its worst-ever result, the Green Party did surprisingly poorly and the Socialist Party suffers from three fundamental flaws: it has no unity, no identity, and no strategy. If it ever wants to conquer power again, it must engage in a profound transformation. All its leaders agree on this but not on the method. The party has been riveted by internal divisions over ideology and leadership.

In a surprising move, defeated presidential candidate Seacute;golegrave;ne Royal announced on Sunday evening that she had separated from her companion and Socialist Party head Franccedil;ois Hollande. She also made clear she would seek to replace him as party leader. Their strained relationship had evidently impacted the party but clarifying it won8217;t be enough. The Socialists have to decide what they stand for, what it means to be Leftist in this day and age, what is a just society, what does real equality entail, what do the notions of progress, responsibility and liberty imply. Different scenarios are available: the Italian one 8212;- an alliance with the centre, as alluded to by Royal, which risks to antagonise the Leftist wing of the party; the British new labour route 8212;- advocated by former finance minister Strauss-Kahn, with the same risk as the first scenario; the German option 8212;- a scission of the party8217;s leftist wing as Oskar Lafontaine8217;s when he disagreed with SPD8217;s Schroeder neoliberal policies, but the Left of the Left in France is so weak and divided that such a scission is likely to fail; or another solution, yet to be found. The Socialist Party always postponed real reforms in order to deal with short term electoral needs. Its platform is therefore ill-adapted to the realities of this century. So it cannot take Sunday8217;s surprise as an encouragement to continue the way it is. Or else, the next elections will bring renewed defeat.

In a democracy, it is important to have a vocal opposition playing its role of checks and balances through the republic8217;s institutions. Otherwise, frustrated and unheard voices are tempted to go to the streets in order to be heard. In that sense, Sunday8217;s elections are good news for French democracy. But if this apparent boost to the Socialist Party ends up delaying its much needed reform, it would in fact be a poisoned gift on the long run.

The writer is a French journalist