Operation Knockout

While the allied forces now are engaged in consolidating their positions waiting for reinforcements to arrive, more traditional war fighting...

While the allied forces now are engaged in consolidating their positions waiting for reinforcements to arrive, more traditional war fighting seems to be regaining ground.

This is necessary to ensure that the major cities like Najaf and Karbala and numerous towns and villages along the axis of advance that the US forces have opted for are brought under control for any major move northward.

Major battles have been developing in the Najaf area over the last weekend, both to its northwest and to the south. The battle for Najaf would be tactically difficult. But it carries with it enormous political challenges; and the way these, and not just the fighting, evolve could define the shape of things to come.

But to control the inhabited areas, secure the 350-km long supply line, and advance to fight the main Iraqi force around the capital, additional forces have been ordered into the war zone. US 4th Infantry Division along with the lightly armed 2nd Cavalry Regiment, which were earmarked to advance through Turkey to pose a threat from the north, are now beginning to enter Kuwait. These and some additional forces would be available in the Najaf-Hilla-Karbala area perhaps not earlier than the middle of April, while the larger forces ordered to the battle zone would keep pouring in later.

Meanwhile, US forces have been engaged in trying to ensure control of Najaf and of Nasiriya to the south and Hilla to the north. After losing the early opportunities, massive close air support some unconfirmed estimates place the figure in terms of thousand-odd sorties per day has been provided by A-10 and other fighter aircraft in the Nasiriya region.

There are apparently still serious problems in establishing control over the river crossing across the Euphrates in Nasiriya region since the bridges have been damaged and Iraqis are fighting back with ferocious tenacity.

But the crucial battle before the one for Baghdad is likely to be the one fought for Najaf. Iraqi regular forces seem to have moved a lot of forces south, and they are distributed in smaller size forces spread out in and around cities, towns and villages. US forces have so far concentrated on probing attacks with helicopters and other air power.

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US forces in the area have already been reinforced by a couple of Marine battalions and it appears that a new attack to take key objectives may have been launched last Sunday-Monday.

According to reports Iraqi defences in the region consist of about 4,500 troops of regular and irregular forces. There may be as many as three-dozen T-55/62 tanks and a couple of artillery batteries besides a significant number of anti-tank weapons.

The US forces here are likely to be around 6,000 strong with 80-100 M-1 Abrams tanks supported by substantive artillery systems. Where the US would have a clear edge is in the 40-60 helicopters and the near unlimited close air support with fixed wing aircraft like the A-10s.

The war has already shown that Iraqi irregulars have fought with great determination and willingness to accept casualties. The battle for Najaf, if anything, is likely to witness even more ferocious fighting unless some sort of agreement to save the holy shrines is arrived at.

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But what could be crucial is the imbalance in air power and air defence capabilities. Much of the urban conflict would have to be undertaken during daytime, especially since the US would like to avoid inadvertent, leave alone deliberate, targeting that could affect the holy shrines. Strike aircraft would always carry the added risk of collateral damage, which in the given circumstances could trigger unpredictable reactions. Attack helicopters, therefore, are likely to be the preferred US means of aerial attack especially in view of their quick response time. But their vulnerability even to small arms could be problematic and the Iraqis have assembled adequate anti-aircraft guns.

Fidayeen attacks and heavy, even indiscriminate firepower, could raise the bloodshed levels significantly. Militarily, the correlation of forces is such that American military would finally dominate. The problems may arise if political and religious reaction to the fighting in the holy city starts to impact the environment, both domestically as well as internationally.

Air Commodore retd Jasjit Singh, editorial consultant to The Indian Express, will analyse the war daily. Readers can send their queries to him at jasjitsinghexpressindia.com