Natty Naidu

The big winner of 1999 is Chandrababu Naidu. He returns to power in Andhra Pradesh looking, if anything, stronger than he was five years ago. His handsome haul of Lok Sabha seats makes him the BJP8217;s most weighty ally in the National Democratic Alliance. In short, he enjoys real clout in Hyderabad and New Delhi and has a real opportunity to further his reform agenda. The Telugu Desam8217;s performance in both Assembly and Lok Sabha polls sparkles against the generally dull outcome of a contest which, when it has not left parties standing where they were in 1998, has left them much worse off. The TDP has bucked a strong anti-incumbent wave which, with only two or three exceptions, has humbled ruling parties time and again over the past five years. The predictions were that the TDP had more to lose than gain from its poll alliance with the BJP: it was assumed that the loss of the Muslim vote would do serious damage. It was said Naidu8217;s cyber-dreams had wrought no miracles in the administration or rural life and theeconomic reform was impossible to sell to the people. Such pessimism has been wrong.

So striking are the results in Andhra Pradesh that many state chieftains will want to make a trip to Hyderabad to study Naidu8217;s methods and tactics. More than one factor contributed to the TDP8217;s success. It was essentially a two-horse race between the TDP-BJP alliance and the Congress. More detailed results will explain the impact, if any, of the TDP-BJP alliance on the minorities. But judging by the defeat of a number of Congress stalwarts, voters seem to have voted with heads. It is tempting to think that is exactly where the TDP8217;s appeal lies, in the head, and people have made a practical choice. If so, the results are a vindication of Naidu8217;s belief that the people do understand what he is trying to do when, rather than dole out subsidised rice, he computerises the administration at break-neck speed, and aggressively courts information technology companies and other private enterprise, and pushes for power stations.Perhaps people have come to realise that new opportunities down the road are a better deal than the free rice and dhotis they used to be promised at election time.

There is not too much to show as yet outside Hyderabad and one or two other cities for Naidu8217;s enthusiasm for economic liberalisation. Certainly judging by the migrations to other states triggered by drought in Anantapur and Chittoor districts, the government has paid insufficient attention to basics like emergency employment schemes. But the message that the TDP is changing the way of doing things may be getting through. Naidu8217;s reformist zeal has already persuaded many from the World Bank to private domestic and foreign investors to invest in the state. Perceptions are important and the perception is that Andhra Pradesh welcomes new project proposals, will process them intelligently and fast and do everything possible to provide the necessary infrastructure. Naidu now appears to have won strong backing from the people of the state for economicreform. He will have to work twice as hard to produce the results people expect from his government.