Myanmar146;s ready for change

The reconciliation process through a national convention NC went on for too long, with no specific time frame for political transition. The junta controlled both the road and the map, casting doubts on its sincerity to bring about reconciliation. The opposition rejects the NC, and insists the 1990 elections results be honoured.

There are many in the country who remain hopeful of an internal feud within the Tatmadow, more so after the purge of Khin Nyunt in 2005. The rumour of a struggle between Than Shwe and Maung Aye 8212; the second in command 8212;remained just that. Assorted nations, including India, have also failed to bring Myanmar into the international mainstream. So far, neither the engagement strategy practised by many Asian countries nor the punitive sanction policy of the US and EU has produced any tangible results. Instead, the junta has emerged stronger, with the succour provided by China and, partially, by India and the ASEAN.

The junta has long been arguing that it has been unfairly 8220;demonised8221;, because it is a soft target and happens to be in the vicinity of America8217;s rival, China. The reasons cited for the September events are many. The immediate cause, it is argued, was the 100 to 500 per cent price hike in domestic fuel; an unprecedented high budget deficit due to the construction of the new capital, Naypyidaw, the Yadanabon IT project and the extravagant wedding of Than Shwe8217;s daughter. However, it is also true that for years now two important American institutions 8212; the National Endowment for Democracy NED and the Albert Einstein Institution 8212; have been supporting protest cells against Myanmar in Thailand. The junta cited fear of a US military attack for shifting its capital further north.

It is a fact that US focus on Myanmar has grown since the 9/11. Washington sees Myanmar as a critical strategic choke-point controlling vital sea lanes and has lately turned on the heat, citing its growing threat to international peace and security. There is also the intense competition for energy. US oil majors 8212; Texaco, Unocal, Chevron 8212; eyeing Myanmar8217;s Yadana and Yetagun gasfields, had to stay out due to human rights pressures. Anxieties over this got heightened ever since Russia made strong forays into Myanmar8217;s gas industry. Moscow has successfully pushed its Zarubezhneft, Itera and Silver Wave Sputnik Petroleum. Like China, Russia has been pouring millions worth of military hardware into Myanmar. This ranges from MIG-29 to the Buk-M1-2 missile system. Russia has also been helping to build a 10 mega watt pool-type nuclear reactor in Kyaukse, near Mandalay since 2002. Meanwhile, China8217;s Myanmar policy is becoming more sophisticated by the day. After pushing India8217;s GAIL out, PetroChina has established a long-term control over the Shwe gasfield reserves.

Once known as Swarnbhumi Golden Land, Myanmar has been in a state of isolation for far too long. This could have grave consequences for regional and international security. But how the situation should be handled is still a matter of intense debate. One thing, though, is clear. While the role of the Tatmadow cannot be wished away, the Tatmadow8217;s assertion that the country8217;s sovereignty would be threatened if it is not in power is illogical.

Gambari should seek a fresh initiative 8212; involving the UN, China, India, Thailand 8212; in a One Plus Three framework to work out an action plan to break the impasse.

The writer is a senior security analyst