Move on RPI seats may backfire on Cong

The decision apparently lacks any kind of political logic and shows the confusion in the Congress leadership in the context of its electoral alliances with various groups.

Experience shows that the Dalit-dominated north Nagpur segment is the safest bet for a Republican candidate. The Congress has decided to field its own candidate, Nitin Raut, from north Nagpur. The leaders were under intense pressure from party workers who vehemently argued that the RPI was incapable of winning this seat. In the Congress-RPI Athawale pact in 1995, Bhau Lokhande lost the seat to Bhola Badhel of the BJP.

In its list of assembly candidates, the Congress has named Aneed Ahmed from central Nagpur and Satish Chaturvedi from east Nagpur. Already several Congressmen have made their intentions clear to contest from the remaining seats in the city and while trying to accommodate the RPI groups the Congress could have run the risk of rebellion from its own ranks.

According to sources in the Congress, the Kalmeshwar seat will go to the Ambedkar group which is likely to field city corporator Nana Shamkule. The Kamptee seat will be given to the Gavai-Kawade group and the obvious choice will be Sulekha Kumbhare.

Kamptee does have Dalit presence and Kumbhare enjoys some amount of personal sway too in her favour. In Kalmeshwar, however, there is very little Republican influence and Shamkule or anayone else from that group for that matter would be a complete stranger to that constituency.

There is every likelihood, therefore, that the Congress might encounter rebellion from the RPI ranks not only in north Nagpur but elsewhere as well. Even otherwise, if someone like former MLA Upendra Shende of RPIK were to contest the north Nagpur seat again, he would definitely eat into a large chunk of RPI votes which could have gone to the Congress-RPI alliance candidate.

The fight here promises to become even more interesting if Bhola Badhel who has been denied a re-nomination by the BJP, enters the fray. There were reports that he has resigned from the BJP. His supporters could encourage8217; Badhel to contest on his own steam.

Besides the north Nagpur seat, the Congress decision is likely to affect other constituencies in the district which have a telling dalit presence.

A domino effect could unnecessarily hamper the prospects of Congress candidates in other constituencies.

As it were, the fragmentation of the RPI is going to restrict polarisation in a big way, harming the Congress and thus benefiting the BJP-Shiv Sena combine.