Middle Path to Middle Kingdom

Chinese President Hu Jintao8217;s visit to India this month showcases India8217;s own trade relations with China that have grown so dramatically in recent years. While Beijing is set to emerge as India8217;s largest trading partner ahead of the European Union and the United States in the next few years, that trend line has been evident all across Asia for a long time.

China has already replaced the United States as Japan8217;s largest trading partner, and has become a powerful force shaping the economic, financial and commercial flows in East Asia, Southeast Asia and South Asia. The impact of this growth is not just about incredible numbers on trade volumes between China and other Asian nations. It is also about the Chinese economy sucking in the vast periphery on its long borders.

China8217;s emergence as an engine of regional economic growth has also influenced the politics and diplomacy in various parts of Asia, including the Subcontinent, and created the potential for crafting a new security order in Asia.

Shambaugh brings together some of the world8217;s top China hands to explore these extraordinary changes in Asia and their implications for the United States and the region. Unlike most edited volumes, which tend to put together an uneven set of essays, Shambaugh8217;s collection has a coherent internal design and consistent scholarship of very high quality.

The central questions, however, are posed by Shambaugh himself. Is Asia becoming Sino-centric? Will Asia dance once again to the tune of the Middle Kingdom?

For many Indian analysts, these questions are very troubling. India has long held on to the notion of natural parity with China, and has tended to ignore the growing disparity in the power potential of the two nations over the last few decades.

New Delhi8217;s security establishment is utterly unprepared to conceptualise, let alone deal with, implications of China8217;s rise. For that reason alone, Shambaugh8217;s volume should be essential reading for all Indians interested in the future of Asia8217;s international relations.

Many Sinologists, especially in America, have concluded that the rise of China has restored the historic scheme of things in Asia with Beijing at its heart. The last two centuries of China8217;s relative decline, in this view, are an exception rather than the rule.

Holding back from this view, Shambaugh argues: 8220;Despite the significance of China8217;s rise, it is tempting to conclude that the Asian regional system is becoming 8216;China-dominant8217;, but such a conclusion is premature. This is decidedly not the case. China shares the regional stage with the United States, Japan, ASEAN, and increasingly India as well.8221;

That India is an after-thought is certainly understandable; it is only very recently that New Delhi8217;s own growing clout in regional affairs has started being recognised. After all, India8217;s economic reforms were initiated nearly a decade and a half after China embarked on globalisation and manufacturing-based growth. As its economy and the consequent political influence finally gather momentum, India has slowly but surely emerged as a new factor in the Asian strategic calculus.

Shambaugh concludes: 8220;All nations in the region, including the United States, must adjust to the various and complex realities presented by China8217;s ascent. It is not intrinsically something to be feared or opposed, although many may wish to hedge against potentially disruptive consequences.8221;

As India wakes up to the rise of China, finding a balanced approach to our northern neighbour will be one of the toughest foreign policy challenges. India must continuously expand its cooperative engagement with China and constantly work at the same time for a stable Asian equilibrium.

Shambaugh8217;s brilliant volume should help Indian analysts and policy-makers avoid the past oscillation between excessive romanticism about China on the left and the enduring Sinophobia on the right. Both these were based on expansive Indian ignorance about China.