Losing ground

Since his hugely successful visit to Afghanistan, the Middle East and Europe, Obama has been losing ground to McCain. Having enjoyed near double digit leads in many national polls all these weeks, Obama now finds trailing for the first time in some of them. The Reuters-Zogby poll this week shows McCain leading Obama by nearly five percentage points.

A number of factors have helped McCain. One of them has been the return of foreign policy to the centre-stage of the public discourse after Moscow8217;s recent muscle-flexing in Georgia.

McCain8217;s earlier bluster on Moscow 8212; he had called for the expulsion of Russia from the Group of Eight industrialised countries 8212; that was dismissed as right wing extremism now looks prescient to many.

The Republicans have always enjoyed a huge edge over Democrats in their perceived ability to handle national security issues. The unpopularity of the Iraq war, however, seemed to neutralise this traditional Republican advantage. Obama naturally made a virtue of his consistent opposition to the Iraq war.

With Iraq now looking reasonably stable and off the prime time news and the old distrust of Russia resurfacing, the Republicans are once again targeting Obama8217;s lack of foreign policy experience.

The Republican line that Obama is no more than an 8220;inexperienced celebrity-politician, smitten with his own press clippings8221; has begun to bestir the enduring popular anxieties about the Democratic candidate. Obama will hope the convention next week will help him bounce back.

Sparring on Pakistan

On Pakistan, however, it is Obama who has articulated a tougher line than McCain. For months Obama had argued that America8217;s success in Afghanistan will depend upon forcing fundamental changes in Pakistan.

He had demanded that the US should bomb terrorist bases in Pakistan, if Islamabad was not willing to act against the Taliban and the al-Qaida.

The resignation of Pervez Musharraf as the president of Pakistan this week has allowed Obama to reaffirm that his judgement is better than that of McCain.

In a speech this week, Obama said McCain 8220;had refused to join my call to take out Osama bin Laden across the Afghan border and instead spent years backing a dictator in Pakistan who failed to serve the interests of his own people8221;.

Obama added that 8220;the departure of President Musharraf has given the US an opportunity to move away from a foreign policy focused on one person and to a 8216;Pakistan policy8217;8221;

Meanwhile, rapidly distancing himself from Musharraf, McCain declared that the resignation 8220;is a step toward moving Pakistan onto a more stable political footing8221;.

Obama8217;s Veep

The renewed international uncertainty facing the United States has begun to loom over Obama8217;s imminent choice of a Vice Presidential running mate. Until recently it was widely presumed that a high flying Obama just needed to pick up a 8216;boring white man8217; for his ticket.

While deliberations in the Obama inner circle on the vice presidential choice are closely guarded, there is growing speculation that national security experience might be the major factor in shaping the final decision 8212; likely to be announced soon.

That turns the focus onto a few candidates, most of whom India know well. The front runner, at least in the media assessment, is Senator Joseph Biden of Delaware.

Biden is currently the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Getting another political insider onto the ticket might darken Obama8217;s bright promise of changing the way Washington works.

Biden has been one of the strongest supporters of the Indo-US nuclear deal. He shepherded the passage of the Hyde Act during 2006 and has promised to work hard to get the final Congressional nod once the deal arrives in Washington after it is approved by the Nuclear Suppliers Group.

Others on Obama8217;s list 8212; former Senator Sam Nunn and former Energy Secretary, Bill Richardson 8212; are quite familiar to New Delhi. If, defying all conventional wisdom, Obama chooses Senator Hillary Clinton as his running mate, New Delhi might be quite enthused.

The writer is a Professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore iscrmohanntu.edu.sg