Like Hu in Tokyo

As China ups the ante on its border dispute with India, now even bringing the territory of Sikkim back into the contentious category...

As China ups the ante on its border dispute with India, now even bringing the territory of Sikkim back into the contentious category, it8217;s time to closely keep tabs on China8217;s broader strategic agenda and the changing balance of power in the region and beyond. Just this month, Chinese President Hu Jintao went to Tokyo on a five-day visit, trying to showcase a China that is at ease with its neighbours and confident of its ability to shape the strategic environment around its periphery. He couldn8217;t have chosen a better destination: if there is any nation in the Asia-Pacific that is really concerned about China8217;s growing economic and military heft, it is Japan.

For the first time since the 1870s, Japan has a serious Asian rival and despite significant economic and trade ties between China and Japan, political tensions have increased in recent years, especially over the differing interpretations of history by the two nations. There was a public outcry in China two years back when Japan8217;s education ministry approved history textbooks that were said to whitewash Japan8217;s militarism in Asia during the first half of the last century. It is argued that about 200,000 to 300,000 Chinese were killed during the Japanese occupation of Nanjing that began in 1937 and the new Japanese textbooks refer to this as the 8220;Nanjing incident8221;. Unrest erupted in various Chinese cities with some subtle manipulation by the political establishment. When it is in the interest of the Chinese government to stir up nationalism, usually for domestic reasons, memories of Japanese atrocities are recalled and this invariably provokes nationalistic counterblasts from the Japanese.

But it would be a mistake to view these Sino-Japanese tensions merely through the prism of history. What is fuelling these Sino-Japanese tensions is a burgeoning sense of strategic rivalry as China8217;s power expands across Asia and Japan redefines its regional military role in close cooperation with the United States. Japan has made it clear that it considers China a potential military threat that would have to be faced and countered in the coming years. This was followed by Japan8217;s announcement that a peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue is a strategic objective it shares with the US, signalling to China that it might help America defend Taiwan in the event of war.

Under the present constitution, Japan has effectively renounced any form of aggression. Rules of engagement for Japanese troops on overseas peacekeeping missions are also severely limited by the constitution. As interpreted at present, they are not permitted to defend themselves or their allied troops unless directly fired upon. Because there are no ground attack units and its aircraft cannot be refuelled in flight, Japan8217;s Self Defence Force is restricted to home operations. Japan has gradually been trying to remove these constraints and a campaign is on in the country that seeks the revision of Japan8217;s pacifist constitution.

Japan8217;s forces have been dispatched to the Indian Ocean and to Iraq as part of a more robust security policy. Japan has been providing at-sea refuelling to coalition vessels from several states performing maritime interdiction operations in the Indian Ocean. Japan has contributed near 1 billion in humanitarian and reconstruction aid to Afghanistan. The SDF engineering battalion is deployed in Samawah in Iraq and is working towards various reconstruction projects. This is in addition to the nearly 5 billion aid pledged by the Japan government to Iraq.

The Bush administration has backed the notion of a more assertive Japan, viewing Tokyo as an increasingly important partner at a time of dwindling support for the administration8217;s policies among US allies. Japan and the US signed a pact to enhance cooperation on a ballistic missile defence system in 2004 that is due to be fully operational by 2011.

The rise of China and Japan8217;s increasing strategic isolation in its own neighbourhood has motivated Japan to seek closer ties with Australia and India based not only on their interests but also on their shared liberal-democratic and free-market values. This focus of Japanese leaders on framing their foreign policy on the basis of values is an attempt by the Japanese elite to adopt the tools that best help them enhance their influence and shape their security environment at any given time. India8217;s ties with Japan have also gathered a new momentum in recent times. The rise of China is a major factor in the evolution of Indo-Japanese ties as is the US attempt to build India into a major 8220;balancer8221; in the region. Both India and Japan are well aware of China8217;s not so subtle attempts at preventing their rise. It is most clearly reflected in China8217;s opposition to the expansion of the UN Security Council to include India and Japan as permanent members. China8217;s status as a permanent member of the Security Council and as a nuclear-weapon state is something that it would be loathe to share with any other state in Asia.

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Whatever the outcome of Hu8217;s visit to Japan, the underlying strategic realities in the Asia-Pacific are unlikely to change in any significant manner.

The writer teaches at King8217;s College, London harsh.pantkcl.ac.uk