J038;K, here146;s a reality check

New Delhi is all smiles. The success of the JK polls has come as great relief. It has also generated hope of a new beginning after years of...

New Delhi is all smiles. The success of the J038;K polls has come as great relief. It has also generated hope of a new beginning after years of despair in the valley. The emphasis of the Centre was solely on the fairness of the polls and it has succeeded in sending across a message of sincerity. The international community now swears by the authenticity of the process and the results have only reinforced its credibility. But, as the days pass and the euphoria recedes, the Centre will find itself in a quandary.

The rout of National Conference NC and dismantling of the Abdullah raj after 27 years is useful in that the J-K government is not seen as a Delhi-made one anymore but enjoys a truly representative character. But this advantage will come at a heavy price for the BJP-led NDA. The Peoples Democratic Party PDP has emerged as a strong regional force in Kashmir with 16 members in the new assembly. They will play a major role in the formation of a coalition government in the state. Now look at the PDP8217;s poll manifesto. It is interesting that when Kashmiris came out to vote, they literally voted for people who were the farthest from the Centre. True, popular antipathy to the NC was caused by factors that went beyond its affinity to the Central government. But issues like human rights abuses, the free hand given to the security forces and the public perception that the Centre was placing hurdles in the efforts for a meaningful peace process involving separatists, did contribute to furthering the anti-NC mood. Not only did the NC go along with Delhi8217;s Pakistan-bashing stance, holding that country responsible for all Kashmir8217;s ills, Farooq Abdullah even went a step further and advocated war with Pakistan as the only option.

The PDP8217;s view is totally contrary to this. It recognises Pakistan8217;s role in a permanent solution to the Kashmir issue and seeks the immediate initiation of dialogue between the two nations. It talks of making Kashmir a 8216;bridge8217; between the two neighbours rather than 8216;a cause of dispute and distance8217;. It wants an 8216;unconditional dialogue8217; with the militants rather than an emphasis on counter-insurgency military measures. Once a coalition government, involving the PDP, puts its dialogue mantra before the Centre, how will the BJP-led NDA react? It cannot afford to say yes without Pakistan fulfilling its condition of stopping infiltration, which has in fact increased recently. At the same time, it cannot reject it outright, because a demand by the elected government of J038;K carries weight, not only domestically but internationally. It cannot be brushed aside like the Hurriyat demand can.

The PDP8217;s domestic agenda will also give the Centre sleepless nights. It is totally contrary to the NDA8217;s proactive strategy in dealing with Kashmir. The PDP wants to disband the Special Operation Group of the police and open thousands of cases concerning people who have disappeared in security force custody. Their agenda is to repeal Pota, the Disturbed Areas Act and the Armed Forces Special Powers Act 8212; a measure that will be extremely popular in Kashmir but which will tie the hands of the army and security agencies in their war against terror.

The PDP agenda has already sent shivers down the spine of security agencies. For instance, it has a plan to set up a special commission to probe all human rights violations and mete out stern punishment for those responsible. It also advocates a major programme to disarm all the counter-insurgents in order to end what the PDP believes is an 8216;NC government-sponsored gun culture8217;, where the government had been given the licence to kill innocents with impunity. Then the party wishes to release of all detenues, especially the undertrials. These measures will help the PDP not only build its image inside Kashmir but put the state government on the path of direct confrontation with the Centre.

It is not just the BJP-led NDA that will have to grapple with these issues but the Congress too. It would not like to be seen appeasing the separatists in Kashmir, especially as it heads for general elections in two years8217; time and would need to counter arch-rival BJP across the country. Will the PDP-Congress be able to forge a coalition to finally replace the NC, despite so many differences? How long will the two parties be able to carry on?

All it all, it is a tricky situation that has emerged in J038;K after the polls. Whether these free and fair polls will serve their actual purpose of putting Kashmir on the track of peace or whether they will lead to more confusion is still an open question.

Muzamil Jaleel

Muzamil Jaleel is a Deputy Editor at The Indian Express and is widely recognized as one of India’s most authoritative voices on Jammu & Kashmir, national security, and internal affairs. With a career spanning over 30 years, he has provided definitive on-the-ground reportage from the heart of the Kashmir conflict, bearing witness to historic political transitions and constitutional shifts. Expertise and Investigative Depth Muzamil’s work is characterized by a rare combination of ground-level immersion and high-level constitutional analysis. His expertise includes: Conflict & Geopolitics: Decades of reporting on the evolution of the Kashmir conflict, the Indo-Pak peace process, and the socio-political dynamics of the Himalayan region. Constitutional Law: Deep-dive analysis of Article 370 and Article 35A, providing clarity on the legal and demographic implications of their abrogation in 2019. Human Rights & Accountability: A relentless investigator of state and non-state actors, uncovering systemic abuses including fake encounters and the custodial death of political workers. International War Reporting: Beyond South Asia, he provided on-the-spot coverage of the final, decisive phase of the Sri Lankan Civil War in 2009. Landmark Exposés & Impact Muzamil’s reporting has repeatedly forced institutional accountability and shaped national discourse: The Kashmir Sex Scandal (2006): His investigative series exposed a high-profile exploitation nexus involving top politicians, bureaucrats, and police officers, leading to the sacking and arrest of several senior officials. Fake Encounters: His reports blew the lid off cases where innocent civilians were passed off as "foreign terrorists" by security forces for gallantry awards. SIMI Investigations: He conducted a massive deep-dive into the arrests of SIMI members, using public records to show how innocuous religious gatherings were often labeled as incriminating activities by investigative agencies. The Amarnath Land Row: Provided critical context to the 2008 agitation that polarized the region and altered its political trajectory. Over the years, Muzamil has also covered 2002 Gujarat riots, Bhuj earthquake, assembly elections in Bihar for Indian Express. He has also reported the peace process in Northern Ireland, war in Sri Lanka and national elections in Pakistan for the paper. Awards and Fellowships His "Journalism of Courage" has been honored with the industry's most prestigious accolades: Four Ramnath Goenka Awards: Recognized for J&K Reportage (2007), On-the-Spot Reporting (2009), and Reporting on Politics and Government (2012, 2017). Kurt Schork Award: From Columbia University for international journalism. Sanskriti Award: For excellence in Indian journalism and literature. IFJ Tolerance Prize: For his empathetic and nuanced reporting in South Asia. International Fellowships: Served as a visiting scholar at UC Berkeley and worked with The Guardian, The Observer, and The Times in London. He has also received Chevening fellowship and a fellowship at the Institute of Social Studies, Hague, Netherlands. Professional Presence Current Location: New Delhi (formerly Bureau Chief, Srinagar). Education: Master’s in Journalism from Kashmir University. Social Media: Follow him for field insights and rigorous analysis on X (Twitter) @MuzamilJALEEL. ... Read More