It146;s Laloo wave, Nitish undercurrent

One reason even seasoned observers of the Bihar political scene are unsure of the success of Laloo8217;s strategy is the nature of the polls this time. The one line heard over and over again in every part of the state today is: 8216;8216;This has been the most free and fair poll in Bihar8217;s history.8217;8217;

Candidates belonging to both NDA and the RJD-led Secular Democratic Front SDF admit that this time they cannot predict their own margins of victory or defeat. In previous elections, ground-level political workers had a fair idea of how many votes had been cast in their party8217;s favour.

The reason was simple. 8216;8216;If the RJD was strong in an area, then they would cast the bulk of votes; and in forward-dominated villages, it would go to the anti-RJD force,8217;8217; said a political activist, explaining the 8216;8216;democratic booth-capturing8217;8217; that was the norm in Bihar till K.J. Rao arrived on the scene.

8216;8216;But this time,8217;8217; said a senior bureaucrat, 8216;8216;all calculations have gone haywire. You cannot count on the basis of booths anymore. Bihar has witnessed person to person voting just like in Kerala8212;with voters standing in long queues to cast their vote.8217;8217;

Although Laloo has been sharply critical of the Election Commission8217;s tough ways, the free and fair polling can benefit him too because his supporters8212; after being initially on the defensive8212;have come out aggressively to counter the pro-Nitish tilt.

This was evident in Danapur today, a bellwether Yadav-dominated constituency in the outskirts of Patna, which the RJD lost in the February polls. Having cast their votes earlier in the day, a group of men of various ages were busy discussing the elections at a chai shop in the Takiyapar locality of Danapur.

And after some initial hesitation, they soon revealed that they had all voted for lalten. Since they were mostly Yadavs, their support for Laloo may seem a given. But the significant thing is that just eight months ago, a large section of Yadavs who had always voted for Laloo who had personally contested and won Danapur in 1995 and 2000 had shifted loyalties. As a result, the RJD8217;s Ramanand Yadav lost to the BJP8217;s Asha Sinha by a margin of around 8,000 votes, while the LJP8217;s Suresh Prasad Yadav polled around 17,000 votes.

In Danapur, we hear the same refrain as elsewhere in the state. 8216;8216;The LJP doesn8217;t count anymore. It8217;s a straight fight, and those of us who voted for Paswan then have gone back to the lantern now.8217;8217;

Ranbir Yadav admits the change has come about for one reason alone: 8216;8216;Since Laloo failed to form the government, we have gone back to him.8217;8217; The logic is simple. Last time they decided to give a jolt to Laloo but expected him to form a government with Paswan8217;s help. But this time, the prospects of an upper castes-backed government, has made them scurry to defend the crumbling 8216;8216;backwards8217;8217; fort.

NDA leaders have maintained that a Muslim-Yadav consolidation alone will not help Laloo this time. But what they overlook is that Laloo8217;s 8216;8216;counter consolidation8217;8217; could stall the NDA8217;s march to power. How far Laloo succeeds in cementing the cracks in his own base as compared to February will determine whether the NDA gets a clear majority or remains only the largest pre-poll combine in yet another hung Assembly.

Shaken by the overt pro-Nitish mood this time, the RJD8217;s hopes are now pinned on a hung Assembly. Mohammad Maqsood, a Laloo supporter, put it best.8216;8216;Agar bahumat ka sarkar bane, to Nitish ka banega; agar tod-phod se banega to Laloo ki.Nitish will form the government only if he gets a majority; Laloo will manage to form one in case of a hung verdict.