In America146;s world

On foreign policy and national security, John McCain, the almost certain Republican nominee, enjoys one huge advantage and one equally large disadvantage vis-agrave;-vis either of his Democratic rivals. His advantage consists of the fact that the former navy pilot and Vietnam prisoner of war is universally acclaimed as a 8216;genuine hero8217;, a phrase Obama employed again last week. Efforts to tarnish those credentials, as the Republicans successfully did against Democrat John Kerry four years ago, stand little chance of succeeding.

McCain8217;s large disadvantage lies in the fact that he, more than any other candidate who set out last year to win the presidency, is linked to the unpopular Iraq war policy of George W. Bush. Indeed, at a time when polls suggest that much of the country has soured on the war, McCain remains outspoken in its defence. America is winning in Iraq, he insists; to withdraw just as success appears possible would be both foolish and dishonourable. McCain has casually said that he could contemplate American troops remaining in Iraq for another 100 years.

The Democrats are far closer to the popular feeling that the war was a foolhardy enterprise that should never have been entered into. That having been said, whoever secures the Democratic nomination will need to avoid giving the Republicans an opening to charge that the Democrats are prepared, by abandoning Iraq, to dishonour the sacrifice of those Americans who have given their lives in that country.

For more than 50 years, Republicans have successfully painted 8216;liberal8217; Democrats as 8216;soft8217; on national security. Time and again, Republican candidates 8212; including Richard Nixon against George McGovern in 1972, Ronald Reagan against Jimmy Carter in 1980, and George H.W. Bush against Michael Dukakis in 1988 8212; have achieved the White House by following this script. The Democrats will need to take care lest they become the latest victim of this tried and tested Republican ploy.

Obama created a controversy when, speaking at the Woodrow Wilson Centre last August, he promised he would go after high-value terrorist targets in Pakistan. McCain again criticised Obama last week for threatening Islamabad, although recent news reports suggest the Bush administration has a similar policy.

More broadly, this election is likely to conform to the historical pattern of US elections, where foreign policy and national security issues force their way into the debate only episodically. Especially if the American economy remains sluggish, Democrats are sure to focus on pocketbook issues. Their ads and their stump rhetoric will return again and again to McCain8217;s impolitic confession that economics is not his strong suit.

Indians should expect to see little serious discussion during the campaign of what India8217;s rise to great power status in the coming years may mean for American interests around the globe 8212; or China8217;s rise, for that matter. All three remaining candidates, mindful of the growing political and financial clout of the Indian-American community, will laud cordial ties with India. All three voted for the US-India civilian nuclear accord.

But Clinton and Obama are also close to the nonproliferation groups that deplore the agreement, and both supported the Boxer amendment that, had it been approved, would have required India, as a precondition for nuclear cooperation, to suspend military links with Iran. Clinton co-chairs the Senate Friends of India caucus, but has not displayed much vigour in this capacity. McCain would probably provide more continuity with the India policies of the current administration than either Democrat.

All three candidates understand that American actions under Bush have diminished Washington8217;s standing, and hence its influence, in the world. McCain as much as either of his Democratic rivals will be sensitive to the need to court global opinion 8212; although his determination to carry forward in Iraq may undermine his intentions in this regard.

As for what the world thinks of America in the years ahead, it might well be galvanised should American voters elect their first female president 8212; and even more were the next president a black man partly raised in Muslim Indonesia. Indeed, Obama8217;s youth, freshness, and stirring rhetoric could excite foreigners in a way not seen since John F. Kennedy. America was a more optimistic country in 1961. Obama consciously seeks to rekindle that hope of a more benign, less threatening world.

The writer is director of the Asia Programme at the Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholars in Washington, D.C.