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Tamil Nadu

This is one state where the NDA must perform well if it is to reach its goal of 272 seats. Thus, the rating and performance of Chief Minister J. Jayalalithaa, the dominant partner of the alliance, will have a significant impact on the alliance8217;s fortunes in Tamil Nadu.

Jayalalithaa appears to have alienated a significant proportion of her electorate. Her performance rating, compared to other CMs leading their states into the fray in Phase IV, is quite negative. However, it seems voters in the southern states tend to measure their leaders with a harsher yardstick than their counterparts in north Indian states.

And, in the 8216;Good Leader8217; stakes too, she is really struggling, with barely half the respondents saying she is a good leader. Karunanidhi has almost universal approval. His allies, the recently released POTA detainee, Vaiko, and Amma8217;s bete noire former Finance Minister P. Chidambaram, also outscore her.

The poll also sought to measure the acceptability of regional satraps as Prime Ministers, since several of them are on the lookout for the big chance. Many of these regional leaders are not well known outside their home states so their rating is judged among voters in their own states. Even in that reckoning, she has support among fewer than 50 per cent of Tamil Nadu voters. In relation to other leaders, she trails Sharad Pawar, Chandrababu Naidu and Mulayam Singh but is ahead of Mayawati.

Kerala

The general perception among voters in Kerala is that A.K. Antony has not performed well for his state.

Probably, the redeeming feature for Antony is that two-thirds of the respondents view him as a 8216;good leader8217; in the Prime Ministerial stakes. Whether this reflects their view that he is a 8216;good man8217; or whether it is a plea to send him to the Centre and away from Kerala is difficult to tell. Yet, it is clear that Kerala8217;s voters do not approve of his tormentor, K. Karunakaran. He is the only one of four Kerala leaders where a majority do not believe he is a good leader.

West Bengal

The NDA held 10 of the 42 seats in this state and it is important for them to hold on to these seats in the Left bastion but the Left does not look very vulnerable.

The Bhadralok are appreciative of Buddhadev babu8217;s performance and give him a score that is better than that of many Chief Ministers. Just 19 per cent rate his performance as bad.

As a leader too, the CM is way ahead of Mamata Banerjee. Of the three old Congress warhorses, just one, Ghani Khan Chowdhury, is within striking distance of Mamatadi; Pranab Mukherjee and Priya Ranjan Dasmunshi both have more detractors than supporters.

Punjab

This is a state where the Congress won nine seats out of 13 in 1999, aided by the split in Akali votes caused by the defection of the late Gurcharan Singh Tohra. The Tohra faction has now returned to the fold and Amarinder Singh has a fight on his hands next Monday. His rating, though better than average, is nothing much to write about, with nearly a third rating his performance as bad.

The Congress8217;s infighting in Punjab has added to Amarinder Singh8217;s woes and just half the voters are happy to support him both him and Rajinder Bhattal in the 8216;good leader8217; stakes. On the other hand, the BJP8217;s Vinod Khanna and the old Akali warhorse, Prakash Singh Badal, are more acceptable.

Haryana

This is a state where the BJP and INLD swept 10 of 10 seats in 1999. This time around, the BJP and the INLD have decided to go their own ways and this has fragmented the opposition to the Congress. The performance of Om Prakash Chautala is much worse than average 8211; over 40 per cent are actively dissatisfied with his performance.

As leader too, Chautala is clearly behind the other two Lals of Haryana, Bansi Lal and Bhajan Lal. The figures suggest there is a fair degree of anti-incumbency against Chautala and this will probably be reflected in the share of votes won by INLD in the elections next week.

Fieldwork by AC Nielsen