Giving Cairo a miss

The Prime Minister8217;s decision not to attend the G-15 summit in Cairo may not send out a very happy signal about the state of his government. But it is not otherwise cause for consternation. Successive governments had to face the music for India8217;s failure to reassess its stake in developing-country forums such as the G-15 after the end of the Cold War. Indeed India has been guilty of linking its fortunes far too closely with such groupings when smarter governments have kept up their links without sacrificing their freedom to manoeuvre in the national self-interest. The absence of the Indian Prime Minister from two successive G-15 summits may have been inspired by domestic compulsions. But if it facilitates a fresh look at India8217;s role in the G-15, it would have been a useful absence.

The importance of the Cairo summit is emphasised for its focus on the Asian crisis and the multilateral trading system, especially as the ministerial conference of the World Trade Organisation follows a week later in Geneva. ThePrime Minister will indeed lose an opportunity to get to know at first hand the minds of G-15 countries on important issues, though the Vice-President and the Commerce Minister will be there. Yet it is well enough known that this country has not recently used to its own advantage its G-15 association. This has been due partly to the changed international situation and partly to its poor grasp of this change. It was precisely because of excessive faith in G-15 solidarity that India stuck out like a sore thumb at the WTO8217;s first ministerial conference in Singapore in 1996. It persuaded itself that promises made by some Asian countries in the G-15 that they would hang together to oppose the developed world8217;s new trade agenda could be depended upon. In the event, India turned out to be the only country which steadfastly opposed the initiation of investment and competition studies in the WTO. Others such as Malaysia struck deals on the side, leaving it alone to wave the G-15 flag and look rather foolish.

TheIndian government8217;s problem with regard to groupings such as the G-15 is not hard to understand. This country has for long been accustomed to being a leading voice in developing-country outfits such as the non-aligned movement, the G-77 and the G-15. A vocal association with them reinforces its delusions of grandeur which might once have had a basis in fact, but no longer. It has found it painful to recognise that South-South solidarity is not what it used to be and that developing countries are more concerned with their individual interests than in ganging up on a villainous rich world. The result has been India8217;s peculiar inclination to forget its national interests to hold aloft the banner of developing-world unity where smaller and less self-righteous countries have been more pragmatic. This is by no means to suggest that India should end its association with the G-15 and similar groupings. But it does need to reorient itself. It needs to acknowledge its own diminished standing in them, and to make arealistic assessment of their diminished capacity to deliver for their members. Absence inspired by domestic compulsions apart, this government should embark on introspection about its strategy to promote India8217;s interests in a changed world.