French spread: oui, non, maybe

Here was France, obsessed with the idea of its own greatness some 200 years ago when America was still 8216;8216;discovering8217;8217; itself. There was Russia, a 8216;8216;former8217;8217; empire tormented with the idea of revival, and China, too crafty to confront the inevitable.

In a different time, when France was fighting a different war in favour of the colonisation of Algeria, Sartre8217;s philosophy of 8216;8216;I am my choices8217;8217; had convulsed Europe. It is that continuing moral dilemma that makes for the purple patch in the skies over Paris.

And although Monsieur Raffarin doesn8217;t usually bother himself with foreign policy trifles 8212; that is really President Chirac8217;s domain 8212; the fact that he will be meeting the elite in New Delhi barely 24 hours after his colleague at the Security Council so eloquently continued to sit on the fence, will surely make the French PM8217;s trip even more interesting.

At least on Iraq, Raffarin is not going to tell Prime Minister Vajpayee nothing he already doesn8217;t know. French diplomats have in recent days argued both against the immorality and the impact of an American-led war in Iraq.

But ask them if France would be willing to exercise its powerful veto in the Security Council against such a war? Ask if Paris would gather up the courage to even abstain? The answer is a resounding silence.

Fact is, since the break-up of the Soviet Union, which in turn created the continuing 8216;8216;unipolar moment,8217;8217; not one of the Permanent Five nations at the UN Security Council has exercised their powerful right to veto.

Even on the Iraq story, the French must hate the anti-liberal guts of their ultra-powerful friends across the Atlantic. But they find themselves in a moral chakravyuh, unable to lead the moral army or support the ignoble cause.

The French, once again, must hand over their predicament to that master philosopher across the English Channel, William Shakespeare. All their sound and fury, ultimately, signifies nothing.

So what of Raffarin8217;s trip to India? Apart from the fact that this is his first trip anywhere in the world outside Europe since he became PM, it8217;s more business than usual.

On Iraq, India has decided that since it can8217;t influence the course of the war, it may as well stay quiet. So Vajpayee is expected to hear Raffarin out8212;just as he did Iran8217;s Khatami some days ago8212;and then quietly repeat India8217;s piece, that the UN must lead the marching into Baghdad.

Their alibis out of the way, both sides will then get down to the cards on the table. The French are believed to have already got the green light for the purchase by India of 6 Scorpene SSK submarines costing a cool 2 billion, notwithstanding the fact that despite the killing of 11 of their engineers in Karachi in May 2002, they continue to sell Islamabad Agosta-90B submarines. Evidently, Paris has told New Delhi that it will honour its existing contracts with Pakistan, but won8217;t do more.

In addition, France are hoping to win an 8 billion contract for the purchase of 43 Airbus planes for Indian Airlines and 17 for Air-India. Moreover, both sides are negotiating the outright purchase of 18 Mirage 2000-H fighters and the production of another 108 in India, for an additional cost of 8 billion. Altogether, that amounts to 18 billion in business deals.

No wonder Raffarin has begun his Indian journey at the Bangalore airshow, but also that he brings with him a huge contingent of businessmen. There8217;s minister for economy Francis Mer and minister for public works Gilles de Robin, besides a large group from MEDEF, the powerful French chamber of commerce.

But India will be looking hard at the gains it stands to make from the French, especially since there are other contenders for most of these deals, notably the US. For example, it would like to push Paris to further push the envelope with the Nuclear Suppliers Group on altering the guidelines to accommodate India on the sale of civilian nuclear energy. Russia, not France, has so far done what it can.

Still, five years after Pokharan, the importance of Paris must lie in the fact that New Delhi has been able to establish wide-ranging dialogues with major nations on both sides of the Atlantic. Foreign Secretary Kanwal Sibal, in fact, has barely returned from consultations 8212; in English 8212; with the Washington elite, to receive Raffarin. Sibal is also known to speak a mean French.

Write to jyotimalhotraexpressindia.com