Dangerous liaisons

Leader of the Opposition Sharad Pawar's comment that Congress chief Sonia Gandhi's elevation to the prime ministership was not automatic ...

Leader of the Opposition Sharad Pawar’s comment that Congress chief Sonia Gandhi’s elevation to the prime ministership was not automatic if the party had to depend on the support of 100-odd outside MPs, denotes a change in its stand. So far the party line has been that any government formed after the fall of the BJP government will be led by the Congress because it was the second single largest party. As Sonia Gandhi happens to be the leader of the Congress parliamentary party, it meant she would be the Congress nominee for the post. It was presumed that her leadership was non-negotiable.

This is no longer the case as, in Pawar’s view, the leadership question will be decided jointly by the Congress and the parties joining hands with it. Apparently, the Congress is also not averse to supporting a non-Congress leader as Prime Minister. The very fact that it has openly associated itself with the newly-formed Rashtriya Loktantrik Morcha to discuss the possibilities of an alternative government shows there is arethinking in the party. The possible inference is that the Congress is even prepared to support a government from the outside. At the root of all this is its fear that any government formed by it would be as unstable as the one it will succeed.

While the dictates of realpolitik have made the Congress’ association with the Morcha imperative, it will perforce have to pay a heavy political price for it. The party did not at all benefit by propping up the Chandra Shekhar regime or supporting the United Front governments. Thus by making Mulayam Singh Yadav achieve his ambition, the Congress is unlikely to gain anything.

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In fact, it will put paid to all the efforts it has been making to revive the organisation in the crucial states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. The attempt in these states is to bring back to the party fold those sections of its traditional voters who had become disenchanted with it. In other words, they have to be weaned away from parties like the Samajwadi Party and the Rashtriya Janata Dal.Without such a movement of cadres, the revival of the Congress will be next to impossible. This being the ground reality, the Congress would be committing political suicide if it enters into an understanding with these very parties. The experience of the Congress in Tamil Nadu, where it had enjoyed a piggyback ride for quite some time, is well known. The party is no longer in the reckoning in the state. By virtue of their population, UP and Bihar hold the key to the Congress’ desire to get absolute majority in the next election.

The Yadav leaders are popular in their states because of the preponderance of the caste to which they belong but their popularity does not extend beyond the states’ frontiers. In fact, any link with Laloo Yadav, because of his involvement in the fodder scam, could prove counterproductive for the Congress. The net effect of all this could be a terrible loss for the party.

Instead, the Congress has a lot to gain by allowing the BJP to carry on in its listless fashion even as itstrengthens its presence in the states where it is weak. The benefits of marking time that accrued to the party in Rajasthan and Maharashtra in the last Lok Sabha elections should be an eye-opener. Patience should be the watchword for the Congress.