Dad shows the ropes

Beware, the ides of May

According to astrologer Lacchman Das Madan, the February 6 date for the dissolution of Parliament was very inauspicious and was made on the recommendation of a card reader even though he had strongly advised against it. Madan warned that the NDA was entering a very bad period between March 13 and May 13 and that conversely Sonia Gandhi8217;s stars would shine very brightly during this time. At the end of March when the pollsters were all predicting Vajpayee8217;s return to power, Madan stuck his neck out in his Babaji magazine and said that Vajpayee would not become PM again and the NDA might not get a majority.

Madan who also predicted that Sonia Gandhi would not become prime minister forecasts that even if she assumes power her position will be temporary, since her bright period ends on May 13. Vajpayee, who consulted the astrologer after the party8217;s shock defeat, was assured that the BJP8217;s fortunes would start rising very shortly.

Interestingly, the number 13 seems to figure frequently in the BJP8217;s power trek. Vajpayee8217;s first term in office lasted 13 days, the second term 13 months and his first full term was the 13th Lok Sabha. Many took this to mean that 13 is lucky for the BJP. It could also be that 13 spelt the end game for the party.

Confidence trip

The BJP was so confident of returning to power that the government did not rush through senior appointments in the bureaucracy, judiciary and our diplomatic missions before declaring the dissolution of Parliament in February as most governments tend to do. Many new appointments cleared by the CCA can be reviewed since orders come into effect only after they are implemented. The posts of ambassador to the USA and the UK are vacant as the incumbents, Lalit Mansingh and Ronen Sen, did not get extensions. One nominated seat to the Rajya Sabha which many pro-government scribes and powerful politicians had their eyes on will now be filled only by the new government.

Blame game

Though the blame is now being placed on party ideologue S Gurumurthy, the RSS and the local BJP unit, it is debatable whether it was really up to the BJP to make the call ending ties with the DMK. M Karunanidhi had politely warned the PM two years earlier that because of his electoral compulsions in the state he would be forced to move out of the NDA before the next polls. After Jayalalithaa parted company with the Congress, the DMK realised that electoral arithmetic favoured a tie-up with the united Congress, which has 12 per cent of the vote share as compared to a mere 4 per cent for the BJP.

Of course the BJP didn8217;t help matters by failing to put any effective control on Jaya when she arrested Karunanidhi and jailed Vaiko under POTA. Dayanidhi Maran, Murasoli Maran8217;s son and Karunanidhi8217;s grand-nephew had been in touch with Sonia Gandhi for the last two years. When the Tamil Nadu ministers finally submitted their resignation, after the death of Murasoli Maran the farewell was very cordial and Vajpayee said wistfully that he wished he could have persuaded them to stay on.

Failed Pawar play

In tactical terms a big goof-up by the BJP in this campaign was failing to tie up with the NCP. In January, Sharad Pawar was willing for a deal realising he had to cope with a strong anti-incumbency factor. The Shiv Sena had been brought around to the proposal reluctantly when the electoral advantage was explained. It was sabotage within the BJP itself which ensured that the proposed alliance did not fructify. News that an agreement on seat-sharing had broken down was deliberately leaked to a newspaper so that the move was scuttled. Pawar felt betrayed and retreated. A BJP leader from the state remarked candidly that it was not possible to have two Shivajis in the same alliance from Maharashtra.

Opinionated viewpoint

We have gained at least three pieces of wisdom from the surprise election results. Pramod Mahajan should not write a book on 8216;8216;How to Win an Election.8217;8217; Arun Nehru should keep his opinions to himself. And Gallup Opinion Polls International should not set up a regional office in India. Many are convinced that there are three types of lies in this country. Lies, damned lies and opinion polls.