Bare Branches

In India, the sex ratio for children up through age 6 has increased over the past decade from 105.8 to 107.9, though this masks the fact that certain Indian states have much worse ratios 8212; 126 in Punjab, for example.

In societies where the status of women is so low that they are routinely culled from the population, even before birth, the prospects for peace and democracy are seriously diminished. The old saying goes, 8216;8216;When you pick up one end of a stick, you also pick up the other.8217;8217; When a society prefers sons to daughters to the extent found in parts of contemporary Asia, it will not only have fewer daughters but also create a subclass of young men likely to have difficulty finding wives and beginning their own families. Because son preference has been a significant phenomenon in Asia for centuries, the Chinese actually have a term for such young men: guang gun-er or 8216;8216;bare branches8217;8217;8212; branches of the family tree that will never bear fruit.

We8217;ve already seen in China the resurrection of evils such as the kidnapping and selling of women to provide brides for those who can pay the fee. Scarcity of women leads to a situation in which men with advantages 8212; money, skills, education 8212; will marry, but men without such advantages will not. A permanent sub-class of bare branches from the lowest socio-economic classes is created. In China and India, for example, by the year 2020 bare branches will make up 12 to 15 per cent of the young adult male population. Should the leaders of these nations be worried? Yes. Throughout history, bare branches in East and South Asia have played a role in aggravating societal instability, violent crime and gang formation. Though the existence of sizable numbers of bare branches is not a necessary condition for instability 8212; the sex ratios of Rwanda in 1994 were normal 8212; it plays a significant role in the amplification of levels of instability and threat.

Consider the fact that in the mid-1800s, a predominantly bare-branch rebel group in the north of China called the Nien, in combination with rebel groups farther south, openly attacked imperial troops and forts, taking control of territory inhabited by 6 million Chinese citizens before it was quashed years later. More recently, Indian scholars have noted a strong relationship between sex ratios and violent crime rates. And worldwide, more violent crime is committed by unmarried adult men than by married young adult men.

According to sociologists, young adult men with no stake in society are more prone to attempt to improve their situation through violent and criminal behaviour in a strategy of coalitional aggression with other bare branches.

Historically, governments facing a growing opulation of bare branches find themselves in a dilemma. They must decrease the threat to society posed by these young men but at the same time may find the cost of doing so is heavy. Increased authoritarianism in an effort to crack down on crime, gangs, smuggling and so forth can be one result. At some point, governments consider how they can export their problem, either by encouraging emigration of young adult men or harnessing their energies in martial adventures abroad. There are few good options for governments that find their greatest threat emanates not from an external source but from an internal one.

Conservative estimates of the number of young adult bare branches in China in 2020 will be about 30 million, in India about 28 million. Pakistan will also have a sizable number of bare branches, as will Taiwan. When policymakers ponder the future of conflicts such as Kashmir and Taiwan, the sex ratios of the nations involved should not be forgotten. Abnormal sex ratios may very well alter security calculations concerning threat and deterrence. The first generation of bare branches since the advent of sex identification technology is turning 19 this year, and with every successive year not only the number but the percentage of young adult men without wives will increase. We stand at the threshold of a time in which their presence will become a factor in policymaking. Given that almost 40 per cent of the world8217;s population is in China and India, the likelihood of diminishing prospects for democracy, stability and peace because of the extremely low status of women in those societies will affect not only Asia but the world.

LAT-WP