Arithmetic tough for BJP

According to sources, the BJP will be three short of a clear majority even if 6 DMK MPs and 2 of the Janata Dal Ram Vilas Paswan and a Karnataka MP vote for it as and when the motion is put to vote in the Lok Sabha.

Though the DMK has not announced its formal decision, it is almost clear that it may side with the BJP to form a new front with the MDMK, PMK and others in Tamil Nadu against the Congress and the AIADMK. This has created problems for the 3-member Tamil Maanila Congress which is still undecided on which path to take.

The BJP is bankingon the support of Anand Mohan, a lone Lok Sabha MP from Bihar8217;s Rashtriya Janata Party RJP. Anand Mohan is an ally of the Congress at present.

It has become almost clear that the Bahujan Samaj Party and Indian National Lok Dal would not support the BJP. The deal with Om Prakash Chautala fell through when he insisted that the BJP must withdraw its support to Bansi Lal Government in Haryana in lieu of support by his 4-member team.

The BSP also demanded that status quo ante be restored in UP and Mayawati be installed as Chief Minister in lieu of Kalyan Singh immediately. Though Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee8217;s camp was willing to act on these demands, hardliners in the BJP flatly declined to even consider them.

While Chautala has declared that he would vote against the Government, it is still a mystery why he did not go to Rashtrapati Bhawan today along with other Opposition parties. The BSP will unfold its final decision only when voting takes place.

The leaders of the Congress and the ThirdFront have promised that once an alternative government is installed at the Centre, the first casualty would be Governments in UP and Haryana. The dissidents in the ruling coalitions in these states would be given due encouragement to ensure the fall of these Governments, leading to Assembly elections.

One of the reasons for the BJP8217;s bravado is Mulayam Singh Yadav8217;s assertion that he would like to share power in any alternative government.

Sonia8217;s statement that she would reconsider her stand on coalitions followed up by party spokesman Arjun Singh8217;s remarks to that end is aimed at placating Mulayam.

CPM general secretary Harkishan Singh Surjeet is working overtime to pacify five MPs of the Revolutionary Socialist Party RSP and two of the Forward Bloc who have openly opposed the idea of installing a Congress-led government.

Meanwhile, the BJP is wooing single-member parties and others though Prime Minister A B Vajpayee8217;s efforts to win over former Prime Minister Chandra Shekhar came a cropper, dueto differences over Bhagwat issue.

Defence Minister George Fernandes has reportedly talked to Paswan. In fact, a Karnataka MP of the Janata Dal who is opposed to former Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda may also be persuaded to vote for the Government, sources said.

The services of Punjab Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal have been sought to enlist the support of former Prime Minister Inder Kumar Gujral.

The BJP suffered a set back in Arunachal Pradesh recently when one of the two MPs of the Arunachal Congress quit the party to join the Congress.Thus, the suspense is likely to prolong until the button is pressed in the Lok Sabha.