After the handshake

As symbols go, the warmth of the Gujral-Sharif handshake in Male can be counted as important, signifying a meeting of minds and a willingne...

As symbols go, the warmth of the Gujral-Sharif handshake in Male can be counted as important, signifying a meeting of minds and a willingness to go the extra mile to start an India-Pakistan dialogue. The message is unmistakable. Both Prime Ministers want an end to the rigid postures of the past which have got in the way of conducting talks on any issue of mutual interest, however uncontentious. Leave alone Kashmir, the two countries have not been able to agree until now even to the humanitarian release of 400 civilian prisoners held on both sides. It speaks for how far downhill relations have gone that prime ministerial signals are necessary to bring about observance of a code of conduct for diplomats. It is premature to describe Male as a breakthrough but a thaw is perceptible. For practical and psychological reasons it is wise to take things a bit at a time. But in the light of the opportunity that the current juncture presents, it would have been overly timid and cautious not to attempt something beyond symbolic gestures.

The decisions to authorise the two foreign secretaries to set up working groups, to lift travel and visa restrictions and identify other confidence building measures all create fruitful possibilities for the future. Even so, the history of bad blood and domestic sensitivities demand realism and patience. Nothing much can happen overnight in the rambunctious democracies of the sub-continent. Any number of factors, from events inside Kashmir to too rapid a progress or stagnation on other fronts, could lead to another freeze. What is important is keeping the handshake going. Foreign secretaries will be talking, prime ministers will be on their hot line when the static goes up. This is progress.

The timing is right for a thaw. For years, Pakistani prime ministers have been excessively influenced on foreign affairs by the military and security services leaving India to wonder which was the authentic voice. Nawaz Sharif8217;s parliamentary majority leaves no doubt on that score this time. His authority and flexibility in policy-making are enhanced since basic changes were made in the Eighth Amendment. Furthermore, the perilous state of Pakistan8217;s economy has given its leaders pressing reasons to curtail reckless expenditure and find ways of reducing the military budget. Seeking accommodation with India is logical in these circumstances. India, despite the apparent weakness of its coalition government, has a durable consensus on foreign policy to rely on as well as recent improvements in political conditions within Jammu and Kashmir. A working group to discuss Kashmir is not so much a concession, therefore, as a pragmatic step in the context of the wider dialogue. Surely, the Shimla agreement itself envisaged precisely this degree of interaction. Shying away from the topic as Foreign Secretary Salman Haider did in Male, invites the old knee-jerk reactions at home. To say one thing for Pakistani consumption and another for a domestic audience is the classic route to trouble on both sides. A considered statement from the Prime Minister has become necessary to pre-empt hollow domestic rhetoric. India and Pakistan cannot afford to let misunderstandings take over the agenda again.