After Benazir

Who could have done it? The answer to this obvious question, unfortunately, is not so obvious. If motive is the benchmark, culprits can range from the rightwing elements 8212; Al-Qaeda and its affiliate groups had repeatedly threatened to take her out 8212; to her political rivals, to elements within the establishment and intelligence agencies. Anyone, singly or in tandem, could be behind this murderous act.

Bhutto had, after the gruesome Karachi bombings, pointed the finger at what she called the 8220;Zia remnants8221;; later, however, she had decided not to press with that line. But the manner in which Pakistan8217;s politics is configured, the PPP rank and file will entertain no other thought except that the dark deed was committed by Bhutto8217;s rivals 8212; and rivals range from the army for whom Bhutto was a bete noire to intelligence agencies, to right-of-centre political parties, to the extremist groups on the loose.

PPP cadres are already in a foul mood and in the coming days the possibility of increasing violence in the party8217;s strongholds cannot be discounted. The consequences of Bhutto8217;s assassination have to be seen on the basis of the vertical fault-line that has historically run through Pakistan8217;s politics and where the army has overtly and covertly tried to do everything possible to keep the PPP on the margins since its very inception the former director-general of Inter-Services Intelligence, Lt Gen Hamid Gul, has publicly confessed that he put together the Islami Jamhoori Ittehad in 1988 to thwart the PPP.

Even now, while President Pervez Musharraf began to make overtures to the PPP, partly because he realised that the next phase of politics would require a much stronger PPP presence and partly because the Americans pushed him in that direction, Musharraf8217;s allies were extremely unhappy. It doesn8217;t bear repeating that Musharraf presides over a system where many functionaries of the government are not particularly enamoured either of his policy of alliance with the US or his idea of cultural liberalism and moderation.

An alliance between Musharraf and Bhutto, even one based on self-interest, was not in the interest of such players. That her rally in Karachi was targeted within hours of her landing on Pakistan8217;s soil shows that these elements meant business. It also proved that they considered her a grave threat and would strike again.

Turmoil suits extremist groups; the absence of Bhutto suits some political groups as well as some elements within the establishment. But unlike the extremist groups, those who are in this game to seek power must realise that some basic rules of the game are important all round 8212; for themselves as well as the rivals. Without regrave;gle du jeu, the country can never acquire the stability which makes politics the only profitable game in town.

Where does Pakistan go from here?

That8217;s the question now and its answer will depend on Musharraf. He will have to make a decision and a smart one. And the only sensible decision is to not postpone the elections. Whoever did this wants two things: create unrest through violence; and get the elections postponed sine die. The postponement of elections will only increase the possibility of violence by signalling to an already bereaved PPP rank and file that the dastardly act of killing Bhutto was aimed at eliminating a political threat and keeping the country away from democracy.

In fact, the only way Musharraf can show his sincerity and even get himself, the army and perhaps his political allies absolved of the accusations that will now fly thick and fast, such being the nature of Byzantine politics, is to go ahead with the elections.

The talk about imposing another emergency will be akin to playing with fire. Investigations into this tragedy need sincerity, not a blanket imposition of drastic measures curtailing basic rights, not least because emergency in and of itself can have no impact on the efficacy of investigations intended to unearth the culprits who did this. Indeed, imposition of emergency and postponement of elections will serve to do just the opposite: convince the PPP cadres as also the majority of Pakistanis that Bhutto was targeted only so the ancien regime could carry on merrily.

This is a death whose shadow will linger over Pakistani politics for many years to come. There8217;s also a lesson here for those who have ruled Pakistan for so long and defied the logic of establishing a succession principle. If Pakistan were a stable state, this death would still be mourned but no one would consider even a tragedy as big as this to be the undoing of the state itself.

Bhutto was fighting for just such stability; the only way to honour her and her sacrifice is for the country to return to democracy and to the creation of a legal-normative framework. And the first step to that is free and fair elections.

President Musharraf has announced a three-day mourning and appealed to Pakistanis to stay calm. By not announcing emergency measures, he seems to be signalling that elections will go ahead as planned.

The writer is op-ed editor of Daily Times and consulting editor of The Friday Times

sapperdailytimes.com.pk