After 8 years, in general

Just as he lingered on despite wearing out the popular welcome that greeted his military coup nine years ago, Pakistan8217;s President Pervez Musharraf took nearly an hour on Monday afternoon to announce his resignation. Musharraf8217;s rambling defence of his political record confirms that dictators know neither when to quit nor how. Known for swagger rather than grace, Musharraf had refused to leave until it became absolutely impossible to stay. When the cataclysmic events of September 11, 2001 put Pakistan at the very fulcrum of the global war on terror, Musharraf had showed promise. As he vowed to lead Pakistan towards political modernisation and eliminate the sources of international terrorism from its soil, the world rallied behind him. Eight years later, Musharraf is bound to be judged harshly. At home he trampled upon Pakistan8217;s institutions to perpetuate himself in power. Abroad, the world caught on after seven years that Pakistan was pretending to hunt with the US and NATO hounds while running with the Taliban hare.

If the general elections last February were a triumph for Pakistan8217;s traditionally weak democratic politics, the ouster of Musharraf through peaceful means should mark the welcome consolidation of constitutionalism. Celebrations, however, could be premature. The massive challenges facing Pakistan 8212; a deepening economic crisis, the steady loss of territorial control in the tribal regions bordering Afghanistan, and mounting pressures from the United States to do more against the Taliban and al Qaida 8212; will not diminish in any way after Musharraf8217;s resignation. His departure, in fact, removes the last political excuse for the non-performance of the civilian government. As the euphoria surrounding Musharraf8217;s resignation ebbs, the civilian leadership will come under close scrutiny. India, like many other nations, wants Pakistan8217;s elected leaders to succeed. Only a bold man, however, would bet on it.

New Delhi8217;s main question about Pakistan, for some time now, has not been Musharraf8217;s political future. It is about reconciling the civilian leaders8217; positive sentiments towards India with the army8217;s vicious attempts to wreck bilateral ties. The current strains in the peace process can be reduced only when Pakistan8217;s civilian government exercises effective control over the army and the ISI, and takes charge of the engagement with India. That would indeed be a paradigm shift in Pakistan8217;s politics. New Delhi8217;s sceptics would wonder whether Musharraf8217;s ouster was part of a deal between the government and the army to maintain the latter8217;s primacy on key national security issues. If that turns out to be true, ties with Pakistan might get a lot worse before they can get better.