A thought for Gowda

The Janata Dal Secular has proved to be a promiscuous political partner in Karnataka. It has remained the common...

The Janata Dal Secular has proved to be a promiscuous political partner in Karnataka. It has remained the common factor in both governments formed in the state in the last 40 months and could well be part of the third. It has been swinging between the BJP and Congress to keep itself alive. The BJP is also willing to go to any extent to form a government in Karnataka. Both are acting in self-interest. But the history of Sangh Parivar-Janata Parivar relations suggests that the BJP stands to gain and the JDS will only lose.

Karnataka could follow the pattern of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat 8212; three major states that are now under BJP rule. In all these states, the BJP and its predecessor, BJS, emerged as an alliance partner of Janata but eventually replaced it, leaving a bipolar party system.

All these states had Janata chief ministers following the post-Emergency wave of 1977. The government comprised of Jan Sanghis, Socialist groups and Lok Dal elements. For instance, Kailash Joshi from the Jan Sangh segment became MP chief minister in 1977, but 77 MLAs of the Janata Party were from non-Jan Sangh groups. In 1980, the Jan Sangh was reborn as BJP and the rest of Janata Party went in different directions.

Towards the end of the 1980s, all the splinter groups gathered under the Janata Dal umbrella. In the 1989 Lok Sabha elections a grand alliance between the Janata Dal and BJP was formed across India. In the 1990 assembly elections, the BJP-JD combine won power in all three states. In MP Sunder Lal Patwa of BJP became chief minister, in Gujarat JD8217;s Chimanbhai Patel and in Rajasthan BJP8217;s B.S. Shekhawat became chief minister. When the JD and BJP parted ways, the JD split in all three states.

In Gujarat, Chimanbhai formed JD Gujarat, continued as CM with Congress support for a while and merged his faction in the Congress. By 1995, only the Congress and BJP remained relevant in Gujarat politics. When the JD withdrew support to him, Shekhawat organised a split in the JD and a faction supported him to continue as chief minister in Rajasthan.

By the mid-1990s, all these states had only two poles 8212; the BJP and Congress. Sharad Yadav, a stalwart in MP in 1977, had to go scouting for a seat in UP or Bihar 8212; two states where the Janata Parivar is still surviving and perhaps thriving. The JDU has seven MLAs in Rajasthan and two in Gujarat today. Besides UP, no major state has a genuine triangular contest for power now.

To survive in the middle while the dominant trend is to polarise, is not easy. Gowda8217;s party has already lost a substantial segment led by Siddaramaiah to the Congress. Sections and interest groups within the JDS pull it in opposite directions. To stay afloat, the JDS is playing a swing ally8217;s role.

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But changing partners can be extremely dangerous for some, though for some others it means all fun. The BSP, has swung from the SP to BJP to Congress in the last 15 years. At the end of every alliance, the BSP plucked away a segment from its partner. The DMK, that has swung between the BJP and Congress, has remained a part of the power equation always. But unlike other southern outfits that are based on strong regional-ideological moorings and unlike the BSP which is a militant dalit party, Gowda8217;s JDS is a family affair and increasingly so. He runs the risk of losing out completely.

If the BJP indeed gets its first chief minister in Karnataka, the state8217;s movements towards a bipolar politics will be accelerated. In the medium to long term, anyone opposed to the Congress will have only the BJP to vote for and vice versa. Both parties perhaps like that. The BJP and Congress could both be comfortable opposing each other, face to face, rather than managing the tantrums of the likes of Gowda.