A different Gen returns to a changed India

The events of September 11, 20018212;weeks after the Agra summit8212;forced a fundamental shift in Pakistan8217;s internal orientation as well as the triangular relationship between New Delhi, Islamabad and Washington. While Musharraf has not lost any of his swagger, expect him to be a lot more mellower now than in Agra. That he chose to send his family and political lieutenants weeks before his own visit is a signal of his commitment to the current peace process.

Unlike the Agra summit, this one has seen some prior political preparation. Satinder Lambah, the new back channel to Pakistan, has recently met his counterpart Tariq Aziz in Dubai. For India, the external environment has never been as good for pursuing a vigorous peace process with Pakistan. As a consequence, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is in a position to confidently push the envelope on a whole range of issues relating to Jammu and Kashmir.

If the failed gamble at Agra to strike a grand bargain with Musharraf fuelled further conflict, the approach since last year has been more business-like and is focussed on taking one step at a time.

The agreed strategy for incremental but steady progress has survived thanks to the reduced levels of violence. While terrorist attacks have continued, for example on the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus service, cross-border infiltration has remained low. Recall the arrogant statement of the Pakistani foreign minister, Abdul Sattar at Agra when he responded to a question on violence. 8216;8216;Cross-border terrorism in Kashmir? There is no border, only a Line of Control, there.8217;8217;

From that denial mode, Pakistan and Musharraf have come a long way. The American war on terrorism has forced the Pakistan Army to reconsider a quarter century of investment in religious extremism and low-intensityconflict.

Islamabad8217;s attempt to insulate its Kashmir policy from the global war on terror, however, was tested by New Delhi8217;s decision to confront Pakistan with all its military might after the attack on Parliament on December 13, 2001. The near-war situation in the summer of 2002 brought the whole world down on the Subcontinent and forced Musharraf to promise a permanent end to cross-border infiltration.

Grudging though it might be, India must recognise the efforts being made by Musharraf to get Pakistan onto the course of political moderation and reverse the direction set by Zia ul Haque in the late 1970s and 1980s.

Meanwhile, international concerns about a nuclear war in the Subcontinent and an Indian willingness to re-engage Pakistan produced a new framework for dialogue in January 2004 at Islamabad. The deal brokered by Atal Behari Vajpayee and Musharraf was built around three elements8212;reduced violence, negotiations on Kashmir and confidence-building measures to normalise bilateral relations.

Since Agra, India8217;s standing in the world has steadily risen allowing it to shake off its Pakistan-centred foreign policy. Its relations with all the major powers are on the mend.

Of special significance is the transformation of India8217;s relations with two of China8217;s traditional allies8212;China and the United States. Just days before Musharraf arrives here, India has concluded a landmark agreement on guiding principles for the resolution of the boundary dispute with China, unveiled ambitious targets in bilateral trade and announced a decision to set up strategic partnership with Beijing.

External Affairs Minister Natwar Singh is in Washington this week to lay out a broad new basis for the creation of a new strategic partnership with the US. The message from Beijing and Washington is unlikely to be lost on Musharraf.