‘Main overconfident ho gaya’: Aamir Khan on facing back-to-back failures and what led to Laal Singh Chaddha’s downfall; expert on how to recover mentally and professionally

The actor, whose career included hits like 3 Idiots, PK, Ghajini, and Dangal, revealed that he had always used a personal “economic filter” when producing films. The idea was simple: a film should never cause financial loss, even if it didn’t break records. “Instead of focusing on how much it can earn, I focus on the fact that the film should not result in any losses,” he explained. However, that calculation was set aside with Laal Singh Chaddha.

Breaking down the financial misstep, Aamir shared, “When you know your film will earn you ₹120 crore, you can keep your budget up to ₹80 crore, maximum. Ideally, it should have been between ₹50-60 crore. However, we ended up spending ₹200 crore.” This, he admitted, was a major mistake driven by overconfidence. “Ek toh filter nahi lagaya, doosra hum log ko problem aa gaye the, Covid aa gaya tha beech mein toh uspe bahut humara loss hua, because maine payments stop nahi kiye the. As a producer mujhe laga ki jo workers hain unka ghar bhi chalna chahiye. Usse humara cost badh gaya tha (First, we didn’t put any filters, and second, we ran into problems, Covid came in between, so we faced a big loss because I hadn’t stopped the payments. As a producer, I felt that the workers’ households should keep running too. That increased our costs).”

While Aamir’s reflections are about the film industry, the underlying lessons about overconfidence, miscalculating risks, and ignoring past safeguards also apply to careers, businesses, and personal decisions.

Factors can lead to overconfidence and how can it cloud judgment in decision-making

Neha Cadabam, senior psychologist and executive director, Cadabam’s Hospitals, tells indianexpress.com, “Repeated success often creates a sense of invulnerability. Psychologically, it can trigger what we call the ‘illusion of control,’ where individuals begin to overestimate their ability to influence outcomes. There is also a tendency to selectively remember wins while minimising past failures, which reinforces inflated confidence. This state of mind clouds judgement because decision-making shifts from careful evaluation to assumptions of automatic success.” 

Setting practical safeguards to avoid costly missteps when making big decisions

One of the most effective filters is structured reflection. “Before committing to a decision, individuals should pause and deliberately consider potential downsides as carefully as the upsides. Building a habit of seeking diverse perspectives also acts as a safeguard, since external viewpoints can highlight blind spots that personal confidence may overlook,” explains Cadabam. 

Effective ways to recover mentally and professionally after a major setback caused by overconfidence or poor judgement

Cadabam mentions that acknowledging the mistake without self-criticism allows individuals to shift from shame to learning. “Psychologically, it helps to reframe failure as feedback rather than as a reflection of personal inadequacy. On a practical level, analysing what went wrong and identifying the specific role overconfidence played is critical for preventing recurrence. Building resilience also requires re-engaging with small, achievable goals to restore confidence in one’s abilities,” concludes the expert.