India Coronavirus Numbers Explained: Easing of restrictions, increased testing led to phenomenal rise of Covid cases in July

The daily rise in cases in July

Andhra Pradesh saw its Coronavirus numbers increase by almost nine times in July, while in Karnataka the number of infected people rose by more than seven times during this period. Bihar, Assam and Kerala added more than four times the number of infected people they had till June.

Also read | 50,000-figure breached; recoveries cross one million

In almost every state, the numbers have at least doubled, the only exceptions being Delhi and Gujarat. Delhi, which has shown a remarkable slowdown, saw its numbers grow by 55 per cent in July, while in Gujarat the number of infected increased by 89 per cent.

Besides the easing of lockdown restrictions, another important reason for the phenomenal rise in numbers has been the impressive increasing in the number of tests being carried out. Till the end of June, a total of just over 88 lakh tests had been carried out in the country. In the month of July alone, more than 1.05 crore samples have been tested. The number of daily tests has increased from a level of about two lakh at the end of June to over five lakh now. On Thursday, 6.42 lakh tests were performed in a single day, the highest so far. There are plans to further ramp up the testing infrastructure to enable over 10 lakh tests a day.

Covid-19 vaccine tracker | Vaccine would be a reality by end of year or start of 2021, says top US expert

Till the epidemic does not begin to decline, higher number of tests usually results in higher number of people found with the infection. That is because the actual number of people infected with the disease is quite higher than the number which is confirmed through testing. Since most of the infected people do not show any symptoms of the disease, a lot of them go undetected. But if the number of tests is increased, many of these asymptomatic cases also get detected.

Increased testing does help in the long run in containing the further spread of the disease. As more and more infected people are detected, they can be isolated and quarantined, thereby reducing their chances of transmitting the disease further. In the short run, though the numbers are likely to shoot up rapidly. This is what, many believe, seems to have happened in Delhi. As the tests increased, the numbers of infected people rose sharply but then, after a couple of weeks, there was a very noticeable decline in new detections.

The same strategy has not given equally remarkable results in some other states, like Karnataka, Tamil Nadu or Andhra Pradesh, at least not yet. These states have been witnessing a surge for more than a month now. And yet, as Andhra Pradesh has been insisting, increased testing is the only strategy that can bring in effective results, without the pains associated with the lockdown. Andhra Pradesh, the fastest growing state in India for over two weeks, has ruled out bringing back lockdown restrictions, and instead is focused on further increasing its testing capacities. The state has already tested more samples than any other state barring Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh.

📣 Express Explained is now on Telegram. Click here to join our channel (@ieexplained) and stay updated with the latest

Top ten states with maximum caseload:

With more than 57,000 new cases discovered on Friday, the number of people who have been infected with the virus so far has gone up to over 16.95 lakh. Almost 11 lakh people have already recovered from the disease, while over 36,500 have died.