Fact Check: No, the XBB variant is not more dangerous than Delta

XBB is the dominant variant in India now. But in most people it will cause no more than a fever, cough, and cold. Even case counts have been low — only 158 daily on average during the week ended December 19.

A woman wearing a face mask walks through a busy shopping district in Mumbai, India, Thursday, Dec. 22, 2022. (AP Photo/Rafiq Maqbool)

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The Union Ministry of Health has issued a statement emphatically rejecting the “fake and misleading” claims on social media that the XBB sub-variant of Omicron is “5 times more virulent than the Delta variant and has a higher mortality rate”.

India’s deadly second wave of April-May 2021 was driven by Delta. XBB is the dominant variant now, and caused more than 65% of the infections in the country in November 2022.

#FakeNews

This message is circulating in some Whatsapp groups regarding XBB variant of #COVID19.

The message is #FAKE and #MISLEADING. pic.twitter.com/LAgnaZjCCi

— Ministry of Health (@MoHFW_INDIA) December 22, 2022

What do we know about the XBB variant?

XBB is a recombinant of two Omicron sub-variants, BA.2.10.1 and BA.2.75. Several studies have shown that XBB is more immune evasive — that is, it has the ability to circumvent immunity from vaccination-induced infection — and has a growth advantage over other currently circulating variants of Omicron. What this essentially means is that the variant is more likely to cause re-infection or breakthrough infections in people.

This, however, does not mean that the variant can lead to more severe disease, hospitalisations, or deaths. An analysis by an expert group of the World Health Organisation (WHO) in October 2022 said, “There has been a broad increase in prevalence of XBB in regional genomic surveillance… The current data do not suggest there are substantial differences in disease severity.”

Does the XBB variant affect the lungs?

That is what has been claimed — and it is not true.

Unlike the Delta variant that went deep into the lungs and led to a fall in oxygen saturation, Omicron variants are known to affect the upper respiratory tract — the nostrils, nasal cavity, mouth, and throat. The virus can go into the lungs in some cases, but it is not the location of choice for the variant.

XBB follows a disease pattern that is similar to its forbear Omicron variants. This, coupled with the high vaccination rate and high infection rate in India, has meant that the Omicron wave resulted in fewer fatalities in the country.

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Is there a risk of a new Covid-19 wave with the XBB variant?

In most people, the XBB variant is likely to lead to a fever, cough, and cold — and most people are not even getting tested now. XBB accounted for 8% of all the cases in the country in September, increasing to 45.2% in October, and 65.6% in November — it is now the dominant variant in India.

If XBB had the potential to drive a surge in cases, hospitalisations, and deaths, some indications would be visible by now. But even the number of cases has remained low, with an average of only 158 cases reported daily from across the country during the week ended December 19.

Anonna Dutt

Anonna Dutt is a Principal Correspondent who writes primarily on health at the Indian Express. She reports on myriad topics ranging from the growing burden of non-communicable diseases such as diabetes and hypertension to the problems with pervasive infectious conditions. She reported on the government’s management of the Covid-19 pandemic and closely followed the vaccination programme. Her stories have resulted in the city government investing in high-end tests for the poor and acknowledging errors in their official reports. Dutt also takes a keen interest in the country’s space programme and has written on key missions like Chandrayaan 2 and 3, Aditya L1, and Gaganyaan. She was among the first batch of eleven media fellows with RBM Partnership to End Malaria. She was also selected to participate in the short-term programme on early childhood reporting at Columbia University’s Dart Centre. Dutt has a Bachelor’s Degree from the Symbiosis Institute of Media and Communication, Pune and a PG Diploma from the Asian College of Journalism, Chennai. She started her reporting career with the Hindustan Times. When not at work, she tries to appease the Duolingo owl with her French skills and sometimes takes to the dance floor. ... Read More