8 key takeaways from Hamas chief’s assassination

Here are 8 key takeaways from the Hamas leader’s assassination.

1. 01

   For Israel, a success

   On October 7, 2023, Hamas killed at least 1,200 Israeli civilians and military personnel, and took about 250 hostages. Since then, the Israeli military has pounded Gaza with air strikes and ground operations, with the stated aim of going after Hamas leaders. More than 40,000 people have been killed in the process.

   From the Israeli point of view, this is a major victory in its mission to neutralise Hamas — a stated objective behind launching the Operation Swords of Iron. Haniyeh is the most highly placed Hamas figure to have been killed so far.

2. 02

   For Hamas, a provocation

   From Hamas’ perspective, however, this is a major provocation since Haniyeh was the head of its political bureau, based in Qatar. He was the public face of Hamas, and was negotiating the terms of the hostages deal and the ceasefire, while Yahya Sinwar is the military leader who was responsible for the October 7 attacks.

   In a statement, Hamas mourned the death of Haniyeh, saying he was killed in “a treacherous Zionist raid on his residence in Tehran” after attending the swearing-in ceremony of the new Iranian president. Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri told Reuters that the assassination of Haniyeh in Iran is a grave escalation.

3. 03

   Message that Iran not safe

   The fact that the targeted strike took place in Tehran will be seen as a major escalatory move, both by Hamas and Iran. For Israel, this is a signal that Hamas leaders are not safe in Iran and in Iran’s protection.

   In April this year, Iran and Israel had exchanged a round of missile and drone attacks at each other. Temperatures had cooled since then, but this assassination has the potential to trigger further hostilities.

4. 04

   Pressure on Pezeshkian

   Within Iran and Hamas, there will now be calls for avenging Haniyeh’s death, which are certain to put pressure on the newly-elected moderate President Prezeshkian. The president’s election campaign focussed on beginning negotiations with the West, primarily for economic reasons given how damaging Western sanctions have been for Iran. He would have hoped to restart dialogue with Europe, to begin with.

   But, with Haniyeh’s assassination, Pezeshkian will be under pressure from the IRGC and the hardliners in the Iranian establishment to respond in kind.

   Iran will “defend its territorial integrity, dignity, honor, and pride, and will make the terrorist occupiers regret their cowardly act” of assassinating Haniyeh in Tehran, President Pezeshkian said on Wednesday. The next few days and weeks will test his skills as a politician, particularly in negotiating with the Supreme Leader on how to respond to the crisis.

5. 05

   Lifeline for Netanyahu

   This assassination gives a lifeline to Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Bibi has been facing questions about his leadership, and his political survival was at stake. There has been growing pressure on him to finally strike the hostage deal with Hamas, which was being brokered by the US, Egypt and Qatar, among others.

   The assassination has the potential to upend all such efforts for the time being, and it is expected to prolong the war in Gaza. This will mean that Netanyahu will likely stay till the war is over.

6. 06

   Questions for Kamala

   The campaign for the US elections in November is now at a pivotal stage with Vice President Kamala Harris now the prospective Democratic nominee. She has signalled that she will be tougher on Netanyahu, and his war in Gaza, as compared to her predecessor Joe Biden. This is especially crucial as Harris is focussed on getting the support of younger Democratic voters

   The assassination complicates things for her. She will now have to think and formulate a response, in case there is an escalation in the region.

7. 07

   West Asia a tinderbox

   For the region as a whole, the assassination is not good news, especially if Iran and Hamas escalate. Such an escalation will impact all of West Asia.

   Qatar, Turkey, and the Yemeni Houthis have already condemned the assassination, and the top regional players like Saudi Arabia, UAE are watching the events closely. After more than nine months of war in Gaza, this is a defining moment — after the development in April when there was a risk of escalation — when the region might get drawn into a broader conflict.

8. 08

   India to carefully frame its response

   India is still processing the developments, with the South Block mindful of the sensitivities of a response. While New Delhi does not harbour any positive sentiments about the Hamas leaders, it will be careful in its framing — since the matter involves a targeted assassination in a foreign soil. The immediate Indian concern will be the peace and stability in the region which is home to about nine million Indian expats, apart from supplying almost two-third of India’s crude.