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Trump Tariff Tracker, April 26: Why Trump’s trade deals may be just as whimsical as his tariffs

Trump Tariff Analysis: Donald Trump has claimed to have already signed 200 trade deals. To be sure, there are only 195 recognised countries according to the United Nations

When asked to share the names of countries with whom the US has signed these deals, Trump compared it to doing business as a department store. "...They don't have to do business with the United States, but I set a tariff on countries…” (The New York Times)

In an interview recorded on April 22 and published in the Time Magazine on Friday, April 25, US President Donald Trump claimed that he had already signed 200 trade deals. To be sure, there are only 195 recognised countries according to the United Nations. Trump was being asked the status of his trade advisor Peter Navarro’s assertion that 90 deals in 90 days was possible.

When the Time staff asked Trump to share the names of countries with whom the US has signed these deals, Trump said: “Because the deal is a deal that I choose. View it differently: We are a department store, and we set the price. I meet with the companies, and then I set a fair price, what I consider to be a fair price, and they can pay it, or they don’t have to pay it. They don’t have to do business with the United States, but I set a tariff on countries…”

When asked further why he isn’t announcing these deals if they are done, Trump said that he will in 3-4 weeks. Trump also claimed that Xi Jinping has already called him about a trade deal. It is to be noted that on Thursday, a spokesperson of the Chinese Commerce Ministry had categorically denied that China was engaged in any trade negotiations with the US. For its part, no one in the US administration has provided any proof to show that China is lying.

Meanwhile, also on Friday, a University of Michigan survey showed that US consumer sentiment had plummeted to the fourth-lowest level since 1952.

“Consumer sentiment fell for the fourth straight month, plunging 8% from March…Expectations have fallen a precipitous 32% since January, the steepest three-month percentage decline seen since the 1990 recession,” stated Joanne Hsu, the Surveys of Consumers Director.

She also underlined that it was trade uncertainty that was a key factor. “Consumers perceive risks to multiple aspects of the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming ahead.

As consumer sentiments took a dive, their expectations about the rate of inflation a year from now shot up sharply. “Year-ahead inflation expectations surged from 5.0% last month to 6.5% this month, the highest reading since 1981 and marking four consecutive months of unusually large increases of 0.5 percentage points or more.”

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Also Read | How US tariffs herald an end to hyper-globalisation

The combined effect of these two trends is weaker both weaker growth and rising inflation in the days, weeks and months ahead.

So, how likely is it for President Trump to have done what he claims to have done?

In the same interview, the Time staff reminded Trump that during the campaign trail he had said that he would end the war in Ukraine on day one.

Trump simply replied the following: “Well, I said that figuratively, and I said that as an exaggeration, because to make a point, and you know, it gets, of course, by the fake news [unintelligible]. Obviously, people know that when I said that, it was said in jest, but it was also said that it will be ended”

Udit Misra

Udit Misra is Senior Associate Editor at The Indian Express. Misra has reported on the Indian economy and policy landscape for the past two decades. He holds a Master’s degree in Economics from the Delhi School of Economics and is a Chevening South Asia Journalism Fellow from the University of Westminster. Misra is known for explanatory journalism and is a trusted voice among readers not just for simplifying complex economic concepts but also making sense of economic news both in India and abroad. Professional Focus He writes three regular columns for the publication. ExplainSpeaking: A weekly explanatory column that answers the most important questions surrounding the economic and policy developments. GDP (Graphs, Data, Perspectives): Another weekly column that uses interesting charts and data to provide perspective on an issue dominating the news during the week. Book, Line & Thinker: A fortnightly column that for reviewing books, both new and old. Recent Notable Articles (Late 2025) His recent work focuses heavily on the weakening Indian Rupee, the global impact of U.S. economic policy under Donald Trump, and long-term domestic growth projections: Currency and Macroeconomics: "GDP: Anatomy of rupee weakness against the dollar" (Dec 19, 2025) — Investigating why the Rupee remains weak despite India's status as a fast-growing economy. "GDP: Amid the rupee's fall, how investors are shunning the Indian economy" (Dec 5, 2025). "Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences 2025: How the winners explained economic growth" (Oct 13, 2025). Global Geopolitics and Trade: "Has the US already lost to China? Trump's policies and the shifting global order" (Dec 8, 2025). "The Great Sanctions Hack: Why economic sanctions don't work the way we expect" (Nov 23, 2025) — Based on former RBI Governor Urjit Patel's new book. "ExplainSpeaking: How Trump's tariffs have run into an affordability crisis" (Nov 20, 2025). Domestic Policy and Data: "GDP: New labour codes and opportunity for India's weakest states" (Nov 28, 2025). "ExplainSpeaking | Piyush Goyal says India will be a $30 trillion economy in 25 years: Decoding the projections" (Oct 30, 2025) — A critical look at the feasibility of high-growth targets. "GDP: Examining latest GST collections, and where different states stand" (Nov 7, 2025). International Economic Comparisons: "GDP: What ails Germany, world's third-largest economy, and how it could grow" (Nov 14, 2025). "On the loss of Europe's competitive edge" (Oct 17, 2025). Signature Style Udit Misra is known his calm, data-driven, explanation-first economics journalism. He avoids ideological posturing, and writes with the aim of raising the standard of public discourse by providing readers with clarity and understanding of the ground realities. You can follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @ieuditmisra ... Read More