Justice is key to tackling the climate crisis: What a new study says

What are the findings of the study?

The study shows that the over-consumption of finite resources by a minority of the world’s population is shrinking the “Safe and Just Space” — a conceptual space in which it is possible to meet everybody’s basic needs with minimum damage to the planet. The researchers have found that providing resources to people who do not have enough would be less harmful to the planet than the present situation in which the wealthy minority is consuming more than its fair share.

Here are some of the key findings of the study:

1. 01

   Historically marginalised people are suffering the most.

   The research follows from Earth System Boundaries, published in 2023, which underlined the safe and just “ceiling” up to which people could continue to extract natural resources and pollute without destabilising the Earth's systems and endangering humanity. The scientists call the present study the “foundation” as it shows what Earth's 7.9 billion human population needs from the planet to live free of poverty.

   According to the researchers, ‘Safe ESBs’ are the levels beyond which tipping points may be triggered, making Earth unstable. Safe ESBs are not necessarily just. ‘Just ESBs’ prevent significant harm to humans, communities and countries. The study says that in seven of eight indicators for the five domains, the EBSs have already been transgressed. These include climate, surface water, groundwater and natural ecosystem areas. “The eighth ESB, air pollution, has been transgressed in many parts of the world,” says the study.

   At the receiving end are people who are historically marginalised, such as those living in former colonies, and the poor are at particular risk. At present, nine million premature deaths are linked to air and water pollution and millions of others are suffering from diseases due to rising heat and extreme weather events. The research adds that, in India, one billion people are living on land with diminishing yields. India is also among the hardest hit globally by water shortages.

   The Paris Agreement seeks to limit global warming to below 2 degree Celsius from pre-industrial levels but, even then, 30 million people of Bangladesh will be vulnerable to the impact of sea level rise.

2. 02

   The rich are responsible for the present crisis.

   That the rich are responsible for the present crisis is at the heart of all climate crisis discussions, according to the study. Apart from the fossil fuel-powered industrial revolution of the developed nations, there are statistics on consumerism. In 2020, a study by Oxfam and the Stockholm Environment Institute showed that the richest 10 per cent of the world had caused around half of global emissions in 2015. An unequal 15 per cent of emissions were by the top 1 per cent of the world. On the other hand, the world's poorest 50 per cent were responsible for just 7 per cent and, ironically, they were the ones suffering the effects of the climate crisis the most.

   The new study says that the economic growth trajectories, which dominate the global economic policy, threaten to destabilise the global commons. “Current environmental pressures are hugely unequal, with the richest 10 per cent of the global population consuming as much energy as the poorest 80 per cent and being responsible for more emissions than the other 90 per cent,” says the study.

3. 03

   Society needs to move in a safe and just direction.

   The researchers say that the need of the hour is to rethink economic models and technological interventions and ensure that critical natural resources are accessed, shared and managed fairly. Unless these changes are implemented, by 2050, even if every person on the planet had only a basic standard of living, the earth's climate systems would still be overshot and the planet “would be outside the climate boundary”.

   “If we want to meet minimum needs and stay within boundaries, we have to change. This is not a very welcome message for governments, businesses, and society at large. If we can change our production patterns to more circular ones, to more ecosystem-based solutions, we have a safe and just future. Consumption patterns of the rich have to change even in poorer countries like India. Such change can enhance the well-being of people, and reduce their exposure to environmental change,” according to Dr Joyeeta Gupta, lead author of the study and former co-chair of the Earth Commission.