Nobel Prize ‘ultimate sin’: Why Trump refuses to back Machado in Venezuela

“I think it would be very tough for her to be the leader,” Trump said. “She doesn’t have the support within, or the respect within, the country. She’s a very nice woman, but she doesn’t have the respect.”

First, who is Machado?

Maria Corina Machado, 58, has been one of Maduro’s staunchest opponents over the past two decades. She was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025 “for her tireless work promoting democratic rights for the people of Venezuela and for her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy.”

Machado is the daughter of a wealthy steel magnate and an industrial engineer who briefly worked in business before entering politics. She has strong connections in the Republican Party in the US, supporting the first Trump administration’s (2017-21) harsh economic sanctions on Venezuela. She also opposed the Biden administration’s efforts to broker a deal with Maduro, criticising the grant of a licence to American oil company Chevron to operate in Venezuela while providing a revenue source to the Maduro regime.

Machado is a free-market conservative who has called for the privatisation of Venezuela’s oil industry. Despite being considered too radical to lead the opposition, she emerged as the winner in a 2023 primary election, with 93% of the vote. The Maduro regime subsequently banned her from holding public office, thus preventing her from contesting the 2024 presidential election. This led her to endorse a surrogate candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez, a 74-year-old retired diplomat.

The 2024 presidential election proved controversial, with Maduro declaring himself the winner even as the opposition alleged electoral fraud and staked their claim to the presidency. Fearing severe threats to her life, Machado subsequently went into hiding in Venezuela. She defied a decade-long travel ban to attend the Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo in December, travelling in disguise through military checkpoints in a three-day journey.

She dedicated her victory to Trump, who had expected to win the prize himself for his role in brokering a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, despite not being nominated. She reiterated this on Monday, telling Fox News that she would share the Prize with Trump.

So what explains Trump’s iciness?

FIRST, a declining personal relationship. The New York Times reported on Monday that Machado had been a “source of friction” in the Trump administration ever since his return to the White House last January. According to the report, she snubbed an in-person meeting with a Trump envoy over fears of persecution by the Maduro regime, and connected via a phone call to discuss their shared interests, including the release of Venezuelan political prisoners by the US.

Moreover, Trump was reportedly not pleased that Machado accepted the Nobel Peace Prize, with two White House sources telling The Washington Post that her acceptance of the Prize had been the “ultimate sin” and that he lost interest in supporting her after this decision.

SECOND, the US has vastly divergent interests. The Trump administration is chiefly focused on exercising control of the Venezuelan oil sector, not as much on restoring democracy in Venezuela. When asked about supporting Venezuela’s transition to a democracy, State Secretary Marco Rubio said “these things take time” and that US national interests were the more immediate concern.

Ensuring a total regime change would prove to be a costly endeavour for the US, and would call for the large-scale deployment of its military in Venezuela for years, Rubio added.

Instead, the US is banking on cooperation with Maduro’s Vice President, now the interim president, Delcy Rodriguez, viewing that as the easier path ahead.

THIRD, and an equally important reason could be Trump’s wish to save face. In 2019, he threw his support behind then-opposition leader, Juan Guaidó, to overthrow Maduro. Guaidó faced a fate similar to Machado: While he was allowed to contest the 2018 presidential election, Maduro similarly declared himself president. Despite sweeping US sanctions, Guaidó was forced into exile.

The Trump administration is not convinced of Machado’s ability to lead Venezuela if she were to become president. Rubio said that the vast majority of Venezuela’s opposition is no longer present inside the country.

Machado’s own policies may be to blame, with her support of US sanctions earning the ire of Venezuelan business leaders who have forged a relationship with Maduro so they remain functional. Further, her refusal to engage with Maduro’s government, while a major part of her political strategy, has likely derailed her ability to build a coalition to help her stake a claim to power.