An Expert Explains: ‘No data to suggest that transmission will slow as summer approaches’

People should not panic, but take precautionary measures. Strong systems and processes are in place to deal with the outbreak, and the Ministry is constantly monitoring the situation

ICMR, which is also the testing agency for the virus, has expanded its network of labs equipped to test COVID-19 from 51 to 63. (Express Photo: Amit Mehra)

Prof (Dr) Balram Bhargava is Director General, Indian Council of Medical Research, and one of the officials leading India’s battle against the novel coronavirus. He spoke to Anuradha Mascarenhas.

How helpful was it that India escaped the first round of the virus’s spread in January and February?

Yes, we were fortunate not to have many infections in January and February. But we were very well prepared even at that time. The news of people falling sick in Wuhan had started to come in December itself, and we had begun sensitising our laboratories. We have dealt with similar outbreaks in the past, like the Nipah virus and Zika virus, and were able to contain their spread. We knew the drill, and we prepared ourselves. By January 17, we were ready to deal with the outbreak. The fact that there was no serious outbreak in January and February gave us the time to strengthen our system and to sensitise the public.

What could be the possible reasons for India to escape the initial round of the virus’s spread?

It could be a combination of several things. The timely evacuation from Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak, rapid and compulsory testing of passengers at airports, stepping up of social distancing measures, all could have helped. It is not that we did not get any case during this time. We did have a few in Kerala among people who had returned from Wuhan. But timely quarantine helped in preventing community transmission. We have been fortunate thus far in not having cases of community transmission.

Data suggest that spread is very rapid once about 100 people are infected in a country. Is that path inevitable?

It is possible to avoid that curve. It is not at all necessary that we follow the same curve of exponential spread. And we are trying our best to prevent community transmission. Travel advisories and restrictions, guidelines and FAQs for public issued by the Health Ministry, and the training imparted to medical personnel and health staff are all playing very important roles. If we are able to ensure that an infected person who has returned from another country does not pass on the virus in 14 days, we should be able to halt community spread. Steps to prevent community transmission have to be carried on alongside containment strategies.

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Is it true that the transmission could slow down as temperatures rise?

There is no evidence or data to suggest that with any degree of certainty. Changes in weather may or may not have an impact on the spread of the disease.

Two test positive for coronavirus in Noida

A medical official wears a protective suit and a mask to mitigate the spread of coronavirus inside a ward, specialised to receive virus-infected patients, at LNJP Hospital in New Delhi, Thursday, March 5, 2020. (PTI Photo)

What is an optimistic timeline for a possible vaccine?

The National Institute of Virology (NIV) in Pune has already isolated the COVID-19 virus strain. Some other countries — Japan, Thailand, China and the United States — too, have isolated the strain.

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What this means is that the clinical sample of the COVID-19 patient was put in tissue culture, and the virus has been grown in laboratory conditions. The isolation by the NIV will now help in future development of drugs, vaccines, and rapid diagnostic kits. A vaccine, however, will take time.

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Are the ICMR labs sufficient to conduct testing of samples?

ICMR, which is also the testing agency for the virus, has expanded its network of labs equipped to test COVID-19 from 51 to 63. The secondary test for reconfirmation of the virus, which was earlier conducted only in NIV, too has been expanded to 31 labs. These steps will enable India to expedite detection of the virus, and will help in effective management.

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People should not panic, but take precautionary measures. Strong systems and processes are in place to deal with the outbreak, and the Ministry is constantly monitoring the situation. We will be issuing advisories and revising guidelines for testing as and when necessary.

Anuradha Mascarenhas

Anuradha Mascarenhas is a Senior Editor at The Indian Express, based in Pune. With a career spanning three decades, she is one of the most respected voices in Indian journalism regarding healthcare, science and environment and research developments. She also takes a keen interest in covering women's issues . Professional Background Education: A gold medalist in Communication and Journalism from Savitribai Phule Pune University and a Master’s degree in Literature. Author: She authored the biography At The Wheel Of Research, which chronicles the life and work of Dr. Soumya Swaminathan, the former Chief Scientist at the WHO. Key Focus: She combines scientific accuracy with storytelling, translating complex medical research into compelling public and human-interest narratives. Awards and Recognition Anuradha has won several awards including the Press Council of India's national award for excellence in journalism under the gender based reporting category in 2019 and the Laadli Media award (gender sensitivity -2024). A recipient of the Lokmat journalism award (gender category-2022), she was also shortlisted for the RedInk awards for excellence in journalism-2021. Her debut book At The Wheel Of Research, an exclusive biography of Dr Soumya Swaminathan the inaugural chief scientist of World Health Organisation was also nominated in the Popular Choice Category of JK Paper AUTHER awards. She has also secured competitive fellowships including the Laadli Media Fellowship (2022), the Survivors Against TB – New Research in TB Media Fellowship (2023) and is part of the prestigious 2025 India Cohort of the WomenLift Health Leadership Journey.” Recent Notable Articles (Late 2025) 1. Cancer & Specialized Medical Care "Tata Memorial finds way to kill drug-resistant cancer cells" (Nov 26, 2025): Reporting on a breakthrough for triple-negative breast cancer, one of the most aggressive forms of the disease. Discipline, diet and purpose; How a 97-year-old professor defies ageing'' (Nov 15, 2025) Report about Prof Gururaj Mutalik, the first Head of Department at Pune's B J Government Medical College who at 97 credits his longevity to healthy habits and a strong sense of purpose. 2. Environmental Health (The "Breathless Pune" Series) Long-term exposure even to 'moderate' air leads to chronic heart, lung, kidney issues" (Nov 26, 2025): Part of an investigative series highlighting that even "safe" pollution levels are damaging to vital organs. "For every 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 level, there was 6-8% jump in medicine sales" (Nov 23, 2025): Using commercial data to prove the direct link between air quality and respiratory illnesses in Pune. 3. Lifestyle & Wellness News "They didn't let cancer, diabetes and heart disease stop them from travelling" (Dec 22, 2025): A collaborative piece featuring survivors who share practical tips for traveling with chronic conditions. At 17, his BP shot up to 200/120 mmHG; Lancet study flags why child and teen hypertension doubled between 2000 and 2020'' (Nov 12,2025)--A report that focusses on 17-year-old-boy's hypertensive crisis and reflects the rising global trend of high blood pressure among children and adolescents. 4. Scientific Recognition & Infrastructure For promoting sci-comm, gender diversity: IUCAA woman prof highlighted in Nature" (Nov 25, 2025): Covering the global recognition of Indian women scientists in gender studies and physics. Pune researchers find a spiral galaxy like the Milky Way from early universe'' (December 3, 2025)- A report on how Indian researchers discovered a massive galaxy that existed when the universe was just 1.5 billion years old , one of the earliest to have been observed so far. Signature Beat: Health, Science & Women in Leadership Anuradha is known for her COVID-19 reportage, where she was one of the first journalists to provide detailed insights into the Covishield and Covaxin trials. She has a dedicated interest in gender diversity in health and science, often profiling women researchers who are breaking the "leaky pipeline" in STEM fields. Her writing style is scrupulous, often featuring interviews with top-tier scientists and health experts from various institutions. ... Read More