An Expert Explains: ‘Coronavirus will stay; difficult to lock down for long’

India coronavirus lockdown: In India with more year-round disease, it will indeed be difficult to lock down for very long periods.

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There is a good chance that there will be some areas in India that can be overwhelmed with COVID-19. (Express Photo: Gajendra Yadav/File)

Dr Marc-Alain Widdowson is an infectious disease epidemiologist who worked for 18 years with the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Since 2019, he has been Director of the Institute of Tropical Medicine in Antwerp, Belgium. He speaks to The Indian Express on the coronavirus pandemic.

Around a fifth of humanity is under lockdown, including all of India. How long can this work?

This approach will work to different degrees in different places. In temperate regions, there is intense transmission for a few months; in tropical regions, transmission is throughout the year. In Europe, lockdown is aimed at reducing transmission until summer starts, when we hope conditions will improve. In India with more year-round disease, it will indeed be difficult to lock down for very long periods.

Will this virus stick around and become endemic?

This is not yet clear, but I believe it will, indeed, become endemic. We should expect that the majority of the people globally will get exposed in the next year or two. A vaccine is the best hope for now — say, in 18 months. And importantly, Indian vaccine companies can get to manufacture it — decentralise the manufacture to avoid global bottlenecks. Even then, the virus is likely to be around.

Studies show the illness is mild in most people and severe in those above 60, with underlying conditions. What is the most effective treatment?

Yes, most cases are mild and do not reach the lungs, but just the throat airway. But when the virus does infect deeper tissues, you get a strong inflammation of the lungs that makes it difficult to breathe. Supportive treatment with oxygen and ventilators is key for severe cases. Several drugs are in trial stages and many have efficacy, but it’s too early to say which ones and when.

Can India’s hot summer slow the spread of the virus?

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The virus can stay on surfaces for several days in the laboratory. It depends on the type of surface and environment. But the level does drop off quite quickly (in the heat). We are not sure what the clinical significance is of finding small amounts of the virus on surfaces. Certainly, surfaces like door handles that are used by many should be avoided or cleaned regularly.

There is a view that if 50% of the population is exposed to the virus there is a stronger chance of building immunity against it.

This is the concept of herd immunity — that if enough people get it then transmission will slow down, and non-immune people will be protected. The problem with the current lockdown is that it means in Europe there will be more susceptibles when it (the virus) comes back next winter.

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There is this big debate on testing in India currently.

There is a good chance that there will be some areas in India that can be overwhelmed with COVID-19. Testing helps to understand the scale of the problem and yes, it will protect the contacts of the positive persons. At the same time, transmission may be from asymptomatic persons, so it is unclear if the test-and-isolate strategy will prevent transmission effectively. Preparing innovative ways of delivering oxygen and conducting research on the best methods of clinical care in low-resource settings is key.

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Anuradha Mascarenhas

Anuradha Mascarenhas is a Senior Editor at The Indian Express, based in Pune. With a career spanning three decades, she is one of the most respected voices in Indian journalism regarding healthcare, science and environment and research developments. She also takes a keen interest in covering women's issues . Professional Background Education: A gold medalist in Communication and Journalism from Savitribai Phule Pune University and a Master’s degree in Literature. Author: She authored the biography At The Wheel Of Research, which chronicles the life and work of Dr. Soumya Swaminathan, the former Chief Scientist at the WHO. Key Focus: She combines scientific accuracy with storytelling, translating complex medical research into compelling public and human-interest narratives. Awards and Recognition Anuradha has won several awards including the Press Council of India's national award for excellence in journalism under the gender based reporting category in 2019 and the Laadli Media award (gender sensitivity -2024). A recipient of the Lokmat journalism award (gender category-2022), she was also shortlisted for the RedInk awards for excellence in journalism-2021. Her debut book At The Wheel Of Research, an exclusive biography of Dr Soumya Swaminathan the inaugural chief scientist of World Health Organisation was also nominated in the Popular Choice Category of JK Paper AUTHER awards. She has also secured competitive fellowships including the Laadli Media Fellowship (2022), the Survivors Against TB – New Research in TB Media Fellowship (2023) and is part of the prestigious 2025 India Cohort of the WomenLift Health Leadership Journey.” Recent Notable Articles (Late 2025) 1. Cancer & Specialized Medical Care "Tata Memorial finds way to kill drug-resistant cancer cells" (Nov 26, 2025): Reporting on a breakthrough for triple-negative breast cancer, one of the most aggressive forms of the disease. Discipline, diet and purpose; How a 97-year-old professor defies ageing'' (Nov 15, 2025) Report about Prof Gururaj Mutalik, the first Head of Department at Pune's B J Government Medical College who at 97 credits his longevity to healthy habits and a strong sense of purpose. 2. Environmental Health (The "Breathless Pune" Series) Long-term exposure even to 'moderate' air leads to chronic heart, lung, kidney issues" (Nov 26, 2025): Part of an investigative series highlighting that even "safe" pollution levels are damaging to vital organs. "For every 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 level, there was 6-8% jump in medicine sales" (Nov 23, 2025): Using commercial data to prove the direct link between air quality and respiratory illnesses in Pune. 3. Lifestyle & Wellness News "They didn't let cancer, diabetes and heart disease stop them from travelling" (Dec 22, 2025): A collaborative piece featuring survivors who share practical tips for traveling with chronic conditions. At 17, his BP shot up to 200/120 mmHG; Lancet study flags why child and teen hypertension doubled between 2000 and 2020'' (Nov 12,2025)--A report that focusses on 17-year-old-boy's hypertensive crisis and reflects the rising global trend of high blood pressure among children and adolescents. 4. Scientific Recognition & Infrastructure For promoting sci-comm, gender diversity: IUCAA woman prof highlighted in Nature" (Nov 25, 2025): Covering the global recognition of Indian women scientists in gender studies and physics. Pune researchers find a spiral galaxy like the Milky Way from early universe'' (December 3, 2025)- A report on how Indian researchers discovered a massive galaxy that existed when the universe was just 1.5 billion years old , one of the earliest to have been observed so far. Signature Beat: Health, Science & Women in Leadership Anuradha is known for her COVID-19 reportage, where she was one of the first journalists to provide detailed insights into the Covishield and Covaxin trials. She has a dedicated interest in gender diversity in health and science, often profiling women researchers who are breaking the "leaky pipeline" in STEM fields. Her writing style is scrupulous, often featuring interviews with top-tier scientists and health experts from various institutions. ... Read More