The Southwest monsoon will be normal and quantitatively be 103 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), according to the second stage Long Range Forecast issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday. Notably, it will be the seventh consecutive year when the country would receive normal rainfall during June to September months. Previously, India has recorded consecutive normal monsoons for 12 years between 1953 - 1964 and 1988 - 1999, four years between 1975 - 1978 , 2005 - 2008 and 2010 - 2013. After two deficient monsoons in 2014 and 2015, there have been six years of normal rainfall since 2016. This includes two consecutive above normal rainfall years recorded in 2019 (110 per cent of LPA) and 2020 (109 per cent of LPA). Effectively, it has been upgraded from 99 per cent as stated earlier by IMD in the first stage LRF released in April this year. Starting this year, the IMD is following the downgraded seasonal LPA value of 87 cm. Normal-to-above-normal rainfall (more than 106 per cent of the LPA) is likely over the southern peninsula, and the central India regions. “This year, the rainfall will be spatially well distributed over most regions including Maharashtra, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, northern areas of northeast India during June to September season,” the IMD chief said. Rainfall will be normal over northeast India (96 to 104 per cent of the LPA) and over northwest India (92 to 108 per cent of LPA) this season, the IMD stated. Buy Now | Our best subscription plan now has a special price Whereas, below-normal rainfall is likely during the next four months over Kerala, Meghalaya, Manipur, Tripura, southern Assam, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gangetic West Bengal and pockets of Rajasthan, Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh. One of the main reasons for the upgrade from 99 per cent to 103 per cent is the La Nina condition. During La Nina, a Pacific Ocean phenomenon, the sea surface temperatures recorded along the equatorial Pacific Ocean remain unusually cool. Normally, La Nina favours good monsoon over India. “Our forecast indicates that La Nina will prevail during the entire monsoon season. Besides, there are more ocean and atmospheric parameters now in favour of the Indian summer monsoon than what prevailed during April,” Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, the director general of IMD, said. After reaching Kerala on May 29, the Southwest monsoon, during Monday and Tuesday, advanced into the rest of Kerala, Lakshadweep, more parts of Tamil Nadu and Arabian Sea. And the monsoon is most likely to further advance into the remaining areas of Karnataka, northeast India and make an early arrival over some parts of Goa and southern Konkan in Maharashtra. The IMD officials said that June will see normal rainfall over the country with the quantum likely to be between 92 and 108 per cent of the LPA, which for the month is 165.4mm (as per 1971-2020 rainfall observations). Being the month of the onset, there is higher rainfall variability as the monsoon winds take time to establish and strengthen. In June, the rainfall will be below normal over many states post the onset — Kerala, Karnataka, southern Tamil Nadu, Madhya Pradesh, northeast and central India regions. Hence, the farming community should not rush and take up kharif sowing activities at least till the end of the second week of June. “During the onset phase, good rainfall is associated with the presence of off-shore vortex systems, like a cyclonic circulation or a low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal. Over the next two weeks, there are no chances of such systems to develop. So, the rainfall will be below normal till mid-June after which our Extended Range Forecast indicates an increase in the rainfall activity,” Mohapatra explained.
