Opinion A little bit of realism

The air of studied gravitas that has descended on the ancient city of Hangzhou, where leaders of the 20 most important nations have assembled, will do little to dispel suspicions that the world is adrift without a map, compass or captain. Founded, in 2008, to weld the so-called G7 group of developed economies with the world’s rising economic powers, notably China and India, the strains evident at this G20 summit point to a broader crisis in global leadership. Beijing and Washington have signed on to the Paris Agreement, marking welcome progress on climate change, but bruising battles lie ahead on other, critical fronts. The US wants international law to be respected in the South China Sea; China will not countenance backing down on its defiance of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. China and the US want an end to subsidies on fuel; India wants to continue giving its poor the benefits of cheap coal. Indian allies are pushing China to accede to Indian membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group — but China is waiting to see what it might get in return. China is casting itself as a champion of the World Trade Organisation rules, while the US has begun seeking regional trade agreements; Europe is focused on the problems in its banking system, and Britain on the consequences of exiting the European Union.

These conflicts tell us there is no consensus on what rules should guide a world in which the structure of power is changing rapidly. In 2008, as Lehman Brothers collapsed, and the global financial crisis loomed, the G20 played a key role in averting a calamity. The members no longer have a common cause. There has been little progress on agreed ends — witness the fate of last year’s G20 summit agreement for cooperation against terrorism.

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For India, there are lessons to be drawn from this tale. The G20 had been born amid fond hopes that it would see Brazil, Russia, China, India and South Africa — the powerhouses of the new world economy — together shape the rules of a new world order. The reality has proved more complex: India lines up with China on some issues, and with the US on others, while new power China behaves much like old power US in asserting its interests. The brave new world, thus, has proved not dissimilar to the cynical old one. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has responded by pulling closer to the US than any of its predecessors. This, too, will take India only so far. Like in the past, India will have to claw out what can be had from an iniquitous global order, not imagine it can piggy-back on allies and friends.