Seven bypolls today: Regional parties look to upset BJP applecart

Adampur (almost 1.71 lakh voters)

Why it is being held: Kuldeep Bishnoi’s exit from Congress and move to the BJP in August.

What is at stake: Since it came to power in October 2019, the BJP-Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) coalition has lost the two Assembly bypolls it has faced despite fielding well-known faces. Ace wrestler Yogeshwar Dutt was the party’s candidate in Baroda and in Ellenabad the candidate was Haryana Lokhit Party founder Gopal Kanda’s brother Gobind Kanda. The Adampur bypoll is a litmus test for the ruling alliance.

If Bishnoi wins the bypoll, it is going to strengthen the BJP and reduce its dependence on the JJP since at least five Independents have supported the BJP since the coalition government was formed. If Congress wins, it will boost Leader of Opposition Bhupinder Singh Hooda’s image.

Candidates: The ruling coalition has fielded former CM Bhajan Lal’s grandson and Kuldeep Bishnoi’s son Bhavya Bishnoi. Bhajan Lal’s family has never lost the seat since 1968. The Congress candidate is Jai Prakash who has been a member of almost every party in the state. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) candidate is Satender Singh while the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) has fielded Kurdaram Nambardar.

Munugode (Over 2.41 lakh voters)

Why it is being held: MLA Komatireddy Raj Gopal Reddy resigned on August 2 following differences with Telangana Congress chief A Revanth Reddy. He later joined the BJP.

What is at stake: It is a high-stakes battle for the ruling TRS as it wants to check the expanding footprint of the BJP in the state while the Opposition party wants to prove that it is a force to reckon with in Telangana. The Congress, the primary Opposition party, seems to have been relegated to the third position and will be out to prove its doubters wrong.

The TRS has tied up with the Left. The ruling party deployed 14 ministers and at least 50-60 MLAs to campaign and promote its schemes such as Rythu Bandhu, Dalit Bandhu, free power for the farm sector, and farm insurance. The BJP campaign highlighted the “failed promises” of the K Chandrashekar Rao-led government and levelled corruption allegations.

Candidates: The TRS has nominated former MLA Kusukuntla Prabhakar Reddy; the BJP candidate is Komatireddy Raj Gopal Reddy; and the Congress has fielded Palvai Sravanthi Reddy, the daughter of former Rajya Sabha MP Palvai Govardhan Reddy.

Gola Gokarnath (Over 3.90 lakh voters)

Why it is being held: Arvind Giri, the five-time MLA of the constituency in Lakhimpur Kheri, died of a heart attack last month.

What is at stake: It is a direct contest between the BJP and the SP, with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Congress staying away from the contest. It is a prestige battle for the ruling party as it does not want to lose a constituency it won just nine months ago. A victory for the SP will allow it to claim that the BJP “failed at administration, law and order, and other aspects of governance” since returning to power in March.

Candidates: The BJP has fielded Arvind Giri’s 26-year-old son Aman Giri. The SP will be represented by former MLA Vinay Tiwari.

The BJP deployed its big guns for the campaign, with Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath addressing a rally in Gola on Monday. The BJP also deployed several ministers to campaign for Aman who, as per BJP sources, was fielded keeping in mind the “sympathy factor”.

Vinay Tiwari, 52, won the seat in 2012. Although SP reposed its trust in Tiwari in 2017 and 2022, he lost both elections to Arvind Giri. SP president Akhilesh Yadav stayed away from campaigning. Floods in the district and “the failure of the BJP government to provide relief to people” were the main focus of the SP’s pitch to voters.

Gopalganj (Around 2 6 lakh voters)

Why it is being held: The death of BJP MLA Subhash Singh.

What is at stake: This is a prestige battle for the RJD as the BSP has fielded Indira, the wife of Sadhu Yadav who is RJD chief Lalu Prasad’s brother-in-law. Sadhu Yadav is a former MLA and MP from the area. This is not the first time he has taken on candidates fielded by the RJD. Once very close to Lalu, the two have drifted apart since 2005 because Sadhu was involved in a series of controversies and scraps during the RJD’s tenure in Bihar.

Candidates: The RJD has fielded Mohan Gupta while the BJP’s Kusum Devi is hoping to play a spoilsport. The social equation is slightly in favour of the RJD’s Manoj Gupta, who belongs to the OBC Baniya community. If Gupta splits Baniya votes — Baniyas are seen as the BJP’s core voters — he can hope to club the same with Yadav, Muslim and Kurmi votes to shape a winning combination.

Mokama (2.7 lakh voters)

Why it is being held: RJD strongman Anant Singh who has been winning the seat since 2005 — he won it for both the JD(U) and the RJD as well as an Independent — recently lost his Assembly membership following his conviction in an Arms Act case.

What is at stake: The contest seems to be tilted in favour of the ruling “Mahagathbandan (Grand Alliance)” but the BJP is throwing its all to deal the alliance a blow. The BJP is contesting from Mokama for the first time as the saffron party, on previous occasions, left the seat to its allies. Mokama is dominated by upper-caste Bhumihar voters, closely followed by Extremely Backward Class (EBC) Dhanuk and Other Backward Class (OBC) Yadav voters. With both candidates belonging to the Bhumihar caste, their votes are likely to be divided.

Candidates: Both the BJP and the RJD have fielded the wives of local strongmen. The saffron party has fielded Sonam Devi, the wife of Nalini Ranjan Singh a.k.a. Lalan Singh (not to be confused with JDU’s national president). The seven-party Mahagathbandan’s nominee is Anant Singh’s wife Neelam Devi.

Dhamnagar (2.4 lakh voters)

Why it is being held: BJP MLA Bishnu Charan Sethi’s death in September.

What is at stake: In recent years, the constituency in Bhadrak district has gained a reputation for close contests in Assembly elections. The BJP and the ruling BJD are locked in a bitter fight this time.

The BJP will be hoping to protect its seat, which it won in 2019 after being the runner-up in the previous two elections. The party is banking on its high-decibel campaign and sympathy votes. The BJD is hopeful of adding another feather to its bypoll record going into the 2024 general elections. It has won all five bypolls held in the state since 2019.

Candidates: BJP has fielded Sethi’s son Suryabanshi Suraj to gain momentum ahead of 2024 when it is expected to go all out against the BJD. The ruling party has fielded Abanti Das, a member of a woman self-help group (SHG), a move being considered by many as a peek into the future. The BJD is being increasingly seen as nurturing SHGs in the state, primarily those meant for women, as a formidable vote bank.

But what could tilt the scales is the entry of former MLA Rajendra Das, a rebel candidate. Das, who beat Sethi in a tight contest to win the seat for the BJD in 2009, has entered the fray this time as an Independent. In a rare such rebellion, he was expelled from the BJD after he remained adamant about contesting the elections.

Andheri East (2.74 lakh voters)

Why it is being held: The bypoll became necessary following the sudden demise of Shiv Sena MLA Ramesh Latke in May.

What is at stake: It is a significant contest for the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena as it is the first election following a rebellion spearheaded by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and other MLAs. The bypoll is a litmus test for the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance.

Candidates: Ramesh Latke’s wife Rutuja is the Thackeray-led Sena’s candidate. There are six more nominees in the fray but none from the ruling alliance. The BJP withdrew its candidate Murji Patel following appeals from the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) and the NCP, among others. The social equation in the Andheri East constituency is a decisive factor as it is home to a mixed population of different castes, linguistic groups, and religions. The Congress’s votes are likely to help Rutuja.

— With inputs from Chandigarh, Hyderabad, Patna, and Mumbai