Decode Politics: Why Rahul Gandhi gave up Wayanad, retained Rae Bareli, as Priyanka is set for poll debut

If Priyanka manages to win from Wayanad, considered a safe seat now, it will be the first time that three members of the Nehru-Gandhi family will be in Parliament at the same time, opening the party to renewed criticism of practising dynastic politics and promoting just one family. Sonia Gandhi is a member of the Rajya Sabha.

What message does Rahul Gandhi’s decision send?

In the recently concluded parliamentary elections, the Congress staged some recovery in Uttar Pradesh, winning six seats. Barring Rae Bareli, the Congress had lost all seats in UP in 2019, including Amethi where Rahul was defeated by Smriti Irani. The party was at its lowest in 2019 in UP when its vote share was just 6.36% in the state.

In 2014, the party won two seats — Rae Bareli and Amethi — and its vote share was 7.53%. However, this time around when the party contested just 17 seats and left the rest for its INDIA bloc allies, it managed to win six and despite contesting the limited number of seats, its vote share increased to 9.46%.

With the positive result from the state which has maximum representation in the Lower House of Parliament, the party would like to send a message that Rahul is not abandoning the seat and state that gave him and the party a good result in the elections.

Another factor is that with the positive result for the Congress and the SP in UP, the mood in the state seems to be against the BJP. The party managed to win just 33 seats, coming down from 62 in 2019. With Rahul deciding to retain Rae Bareli, the party is giving a clear message: it will continue its fight in UP and the Hindi heartland and take on the BJP, riding high on the results in the state. The Congress will try to retain some of the ground it has gained as it prepares for the 2027 UP Assembly polls. In 2022, it contested all 403 seats but managed to win just two. Its vote share fell to 2.33% despite Priyanka leading from the front. With the Congress’s alliance with the SP working, Rahul keeping hold of Rae Bareli makes strategic sense.

Why Priyanka Gandhi from Wayanad?

Rahul has repeatedly claimed that he has an emotional connection with Wayanad. The constituency came to Rahul’s rescue when the Congress, at its lowest in 2019, was almost wiped out in UP, with the Congress leader losing the family pocket borough of Amethi. Some Congress leaders in Kerala at the time also attributed the party-led United Democratic Front’s (UDF) near sweep of the parliamentary elections in the state to Rahul’s decision to contest from the state.

That aside, the party suffered an unprecedented setback in Assembly elections two years later in 2021 when Kerala bucked the political trend of alternating between the UDF and CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) and gave Pinarayi Vijayan a second term in power.

The Kerala unit of the Congress, which believes that an anti-incumbency sentiment is gaining ground against the Vijayan government, was keen that Rahul retain the seat to blunt a possible attack from the CPI(M) that he has fled the state looking for political gains in UP. Hence, the decision to field Priyanka.

Could the Congress have made a bolder choice and fielded someone else?

There is no dearth of candidates in the Congress for the Wayanad seat. Initially, party leaders felt the high command could field K Muraleedharan, who shifted from Vadakara to Thrissur to take on the BJP’s Suresh Gopi, could be the choice for Wayanad. Muraleedharan was an MP in the last Lok Sabha. But that, party leaders felt, would have given the CPI(M) a talking point to attack the Congress in the weeks and months to come, Moreover, Priyanka too was said to be keen to enter electoral politics.

Priyanka had tried hard to revive the Congress in Uttar Pradesh but with little success. As AICC general secretary in charge of the state, she led the Congress campaign from the front in the 2022 Assembly elections. But the party could win just two seats. She continues to be an AICC general secretary with no charge. The party wants to use her more as a campaigner. She too seems to relish that rather than being saddled with organisational responsibilities.

Would it not open up the party to criticism?

Yes. That is perhaps the reason why Priyanka shied away from contesting from Amethi and waited for the Lok Sabha elections to be over to make her electoral debut. But the thinking in the party was that the BJP would continue to attack the Congress on the issue of dynastic politics irrespective of whether she contests or not. The attack would, of course, intensify now. Some party leaders say she may not have opted to contest had the BJP returned with a 300-plus mandate again.

The sense in the party is that the BJP is on the back foot and perhaps there is no better time for Priyanka to make her electoral debut than now. The party had in the run-up to the Udaipur Chintan Shivir in 2022 intensely discussed enforcing the “one family, one ticket” rule but diluted it with a caveat that those sons, daughters, and other relatives of leaders who aspire to contest elections should have worked for the party for five years. Priyanka entered politics in January 2019.