On the cusp of Assembly elections, what Hemant Soren’s bail means for JMM

In the recent Lok Sabha polls, the JMM-led coalition got six seats. The JMM got three seats on its own, with the Congress getting two. The BJP won seven seats, while its ally, the All Jharkhand Students’ Union, got one. However, they lost all the five ST-reserved seats to the JMM coalition.

The BJP also lost tribal-dominated Dumka, where it had fielded Soren’s sister-in-law Sita Soren, by 22,000 votes, indicating the hold the JMM and its allies continue to have in the tribal pockets of the state — expected to have strengthened in the wake of the arrest of Soren.

“Nothing worked in the BJP’s favour in the tribal seats of Jharkhand in the Lok Sabha polls. The manner in which the BJP will strategise for the 28 tribal seats in the Assembly will be crucial,” said a BJP leader.

Soren’s release is a new entry to the equation, with the JMM expected to try and reap the sympathy factor.

A JMM leader admitted that Soren continuing in jail until the Assembly elections, so that the party could speak of the “injustice meted out to him”, was what they were counting on first. “We also drew a parallel between Jesuit priest and rights activist Stan Swamy (who died while in custody in the Bhima Koregaon case) and Hemant Soren, for both facing action for raising their voices against oppressed classes. Both were jailed and injustice was meted to them… Now that Hemant Soren is out, there will be a change in strategy dealing with the situation,” said the source.

On Kalpana’s role going forward, a party leader said: “Kalpana ji may get a Cabinet post, as we still do not know how the Enforcement Directorate will respond (to the bail to Soren). They might challenge the bail in higher courts or put a different case on Soren. In any situation, Kalpana Soren will be in active politics.”

In the BJP camp too, there is a sense that the campaign has to be changed in the light of the bail. The party put up a brave face, saying the BJP’s Jharkhand Assembly election in-charges — Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma and Union Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan — will plan a “robust strategy”.

However, a BJP leader admitted that Soren’s release from jail was a setback to the narrative the party was seeking to set. “The tribal population will ask how Soren has got bail… They will ask why the trial court gave (Delhi Chief Minister) Arvind Kejriwal bail. They will question the investigation. Now that Soren is out of jail, things will be harder for us.”

Officially, the party played it cool. BJP spokesperson Binay Singh: “The law has taken its course, and we respect that.”