As DMK draws red line over delimitation, INDIA allies adopt ‘wait and watch’ strategy

The Congress is currently in power only in three states, two of which are the South Indian states of Karnataka and Telangana. The party is striving to make a comeback in the Kerala Assembly elections next year. It has firmly backed the DMK-led alliance in Tamil Nadu for years now. And even 40 of its 99 Lok Sabha seats are from the four Southern states. Retaining and growing its base in the South, therefore, is critical for the party.

At the same time, the party saw green shoots of revival in the Hindi heartland in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections after being wiped out in the region in the 2014 and 2019 polls.

It cannot alienate the North as well by framing the delimitation issue purely on geographical lines.

Which is why, for the time being, the Congress appears to be comfortable in letting Karnataka CM Siddaramaiah and his Telangana counterpart Revanth Reddy articulate the fears of the Southern states on delimitation. The contention of the Southern states is that if the delimitation exercise is carried out on the basis of a fresh Census, their representation in Parliament would decrease significantly in comparison to the Northern states.

Congress leaders from Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Rajasthan told The Indian Express that the party need not take a stand on delimitation now, given that the exercise will only begin after the Census takes place. The Census, which is supposed to happen every decade, last took place in 2011.

“Let us see the fine print of the Bill that the Narendra Modi government will bring in… Anyway all that (delimitation) will happen after the Census. Why take a stand now? Our Chief Ministers of Karnataka and Telangana have flagged their concerns. They are free to do so,” a senior Congress leader said.

The other parties in the INDIA bloc, especially those based out of the North, were cautious about Stalin’s demand for maintaining the status quo on the Lok Sabha seats for 30 years.

The RJD, for instance, was not in favour of kicking the delimitation can down the road but believes population should not be the sole criterion.

“I cannot speak as a typical North Indian politician who is happy that the North will have 100 more seats. That will not be in the interest of the nation. Rather than pushing delimitation for 30 years… after the Census is held, there should be a committed session of Parliament to discuss what should be the standard of the proposed delimitation which should include not only population but other criteria as well,” Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) Rajya Sabha MP Manoj Kumar Jha told The Indian Express.

He said the RJD would not want the delimitation to be against the “idea of nation building”.

Sources in the Samajwadi Party (SP) said it would prefer not to wade into the controversy now, largely because the party is yet to take a view on the matter.

The Trinamool Congress (TMC) too is maintaining a silence but one of its leaders felt Stalin is raising the pitch on issues like delimitation and three-language formula with an eye on the Assembly elections in Tamil Nadu due next year.

“It perhaps suits his (Stalin’s) politics. So, he is speaking out. We are focusing on the Elector Photo Identity Card (EPIC) number row and other irregularities,” a TMC leader said.

The TMC leader also saw “inner INDIA bloc dynamics playing out behind Stalin’s aggression”. Stalin, he said, could also be “perturbed” by the fact that several INDIA parties have come out openly in favour of appointing Mamata Banerjee as the alliance head.

The first indication of the BJP’s stand on delimitation came last week when Union Home Minister Amit Shah said that there would be no injustice to the Southern states due to delimitation.

“The Modi government has clarified in Lok Sabha that after delimitation, on the basis of pro rata, not a single seat of any Southern state will decrease,” Shah said during a BJP event in Coimbatore.

Since then, there has been a renewed conversation on the subject.

At an all-party meeting in Chennai Wednesday, Stalin said Prime Minister Modi should give an “unequivocal assurance in Parliament that the 1971 population-based seat allocation will be extended for another 30 years, and a constitutional amendment must be passed” to ensure the same. In the 1977 Lok Sabha, every MP in India represented about 10.11 lakh people on an average. But this number is not etched in stone.

If the same number is retained, the strength of the Lok Sabha would have to be expanded to nearly 1,400 seats due to the increase in population. If the 10.11 lakh average population is considered, Uttar Pradesh (including Uttarakhand as per the 1977 boundaries) will end up having 250 seats compared to its present share of 85 in the Lower House.

The seats in Bihar and Jharkhand would increase threefold from 54 to 169. Similarly, Rajasthan’s tally would go up from 25 to 82. But Tamil Nadu’s share would go up from 39 to only 76, which is less than double. Similarly. Kerala’s number will go up to 36 from 20.

If the population in each constituency is placed at 20 lakh to give the Lok Sabha 707 seats as compared to 543 now, the Southern states would be at a severe disadvantage. Under this formula, Tamil Nadu’s seats would remain the same: 39. But Kerala would lose two seats and end up with 18. Conversely, UP (including Uttarakhand) would still register an increase of 126 seats as would Bihar and Jharkhand at 85 seats.

Even at an average population of 15 lakh per constituency, which would take the Lok Sabha seats to 942, the Southern states would be at a disadvantage as compared to their Northern counterparts. This formula will give Tamil Nadu 52 seats and Kerala 24 seats. But UP (along with Uttarakhand) would get 168 seats and Bihar and Jharkhand would end up with 114 seats.

On Thursday, Congress leader Manish Tewari, in an X post, said that if the delimitation exercise is done on the current principle of “one vote, one value”, then the Southern and Northern states would lose the Lok Sabha seats while only the states in Central India would gain as they have been “laggards on population control”. He demanded the framing of a new formula for the exercise.