Caste, local issues are what count

The 4.62 crore electorate is widely expected to go against the projected national trend once again.

Karnataka, a state that has traditionally bucked the national trend in Lok Sabha elections, goes to the polls Thursday in a single day voting for all 28 seats with 435 candidates in the fray.

The 4.62 crore electorate is widely expected to go against the projected national trend once again with the BJP losing a few of the 19 seats it won in 2009 and the Congress, which is in power in the state, gaining a few on the nine it currently holds.

While the Ab ki baar, Modi sarkar cry of the BJP has found its resonance in urban middle class voters in cities like Bangalore, Mangalore, Hubli and Belgaum, caste and local political equations — including the BJP’s poor record in administration between 2008-13 and the Congress control at present – are expected to play bigger roles in the outcome.

One of the biggest and most eagerly watched contests is in Bangalore South where five-time BJP MP Ananth Kumar is up against Congress rookie, former UIDAI chairman and co-founder of Infosy, Nandan Nilekani.

Nilekani is believed to enjoy a slight edge in the constituency on account of his clean credentials, the backing of key Congress satraps and the cumulative anti-incumbency factor that has stacked up against Ananth Kumar who is largely banking on his political maneuvering skills and the Modi mantra which is the BJP’s main campaign weapon.

The other two Bangalore seats — Central and North — are also set for interesting fights with the Congress engaged in direct clash to wrest the seats from the BJP even as bit players like AAP and the JD(S) threaten to nibble at the votes of the main contenders. AAP has fielded a former Infosys CFO in the Bangalore Central region.

One of the other key constituencies where the battle is intriguing is Chikkaballapur where Veerappa Moily of the Congress is up against JD(S) leader H D Kumaraswamy and the BJP’s B N Bachegowda. While the BJP was being considered an underdog in this battle where Kumaraswamy is the clear favourite, the kind of attendance seen at a Modi rally in the region last Sunday could be a pointer to a close battle on the cards.

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In its Lingayat strongholds in north Karnataka and Mumbai Karnataka, in particular, including constituencies like Belgaum, Bagalkot and Dharwad, BJP candidates are being viewed as being in tough positions against Congress rivals due to anti-incumbency and local equations. In its central Karnataka strongholds of Haveri, Davangere, Chitradurga and Shimoga the BJP is expected to maintain its winning streak while Bellary, where B Sreeramulu is the BJP candidate, is expected to throw up a close result.

In Sangh Parivar bastions like Dakshina Kannada, Udupi-Chikamagalur and Karwar, the BJP enjoys the Modi factor advantage but the candidates are involved in touch-and-go battles against Congress contestants energised by their success in 2013.

The Congress enjoys an advantage in the Hyderabad-Karnataka seats of Gulbarga, Raichur, Bidar and Koppal on account of the UPA-II providing a special development status during its last year in power. The Congress also enjoys an upper hand in the south Karnataka seats of Mandya, Bangalore Rural and Kolar.

The JD(S), which won 16 seats in 1996, is a clear favourite only in H D Deve Gowda’s Hassan constituency.