Why BJP has hit choppy waters in Bareilly, a safe UP seat

Gangwar, a former Union Minister, has won Bareilly since 1989, with the sole exception of 2009 when the Congress bagged it. But internal differences led the BJP to drop him and opt for former state minister and ex-MLA Chhatrapal Singh Gangwar, 68, who is being viewed as an “outsider” even though he is from Bareilly district and belongs to the same Other Backward Class (OBC) Kurmi community as the veteran leader. This has angered the Gangwars, a farming community that is the largest and most dominant OBC group in the region and has over three lakh votes in Bareilly.

Rubbing salt into the community’s wound and exposing the faultlines within the party, earlier this month an audio clip went viral in which a person believed to be Bareilly Mayor Umesh Gautam was heard saying, without naming anyone, “Abhi toh patak patak kar maarenge (He will be targeted now).” The Indian Express could not independently verify the authenticity of the clip.

Vote shares in the Bareilly Lok Sabha constituency.

Gautam, who is from the Brahmin community, was one of the ticket aspirants. Asked about the clip, he told The Indian Express, “There was nothing against him (Santosh Gangwar) in the audio. I have nothing against him. This is just an excuse”

But the audio left Gangwar’s supporters and the Kurmi community unhappy, forcing state BJP president Bhupendra Chaudhary to rush to Bareilly on April 8 to meet the veteran leader. But Gangwar’s supporters gheraoed Chaudhary and demanded that Gautam be sacked. When asked about the controversy caused, Gangwar said, “I have nothing to say about the mayor’s comments. I respect the party’s decision (to deny him the ticket) and I am doing my best to ensure victory. I am concerned only about that at this stage.”

In the backdrop of this deep-seated resentment among Kurmis, Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a 45-minute roadshow in Bareilly — he skipped the constituency five years ago — on April 26 along with UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath. The day before, the PM addressed a public meeting in Deuchara that is in Bareilly district — but part of the adjoining Lok Sabha seat of Aonla — where Gangwar shared the stage along with him, Aonla candidate Dharmendra Kashyap, and Badaun nominee Durvijay Singh Shakya. Earlier, Gangwar also attended Modi’s events in nearby Pilibhit that went to the polls on April 19 in the first phase.

Direct contest with SP

With Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) candidate Chhotelal Gangwar’s papers rejected during scrutiny, the contest in Bareilly has turned into a direct one between the BJP and Praveen Singh Aron of the Samajwadi Party who defeated Santosh Gangwar in 2009 on a Congress ticket.

The unhappiness with the BJP’s choice of candidate is palpable among Kurmi voters. In the village of Dabhora, about 30 minutes from Bareilly town, farmer Suresh Gangwar, who claims to have voted for the BJP in the past several elections, said, “Many of us are disturbed about the comment (of the mayor). BJP ghamand mein aa gayi hai (The BJP has become arrogant). He (Santosh) is our tallest leader here. Some may vote against the BJP and if not, they will skip voting.” The village comes under the Bareilly constituency.

In the village of Purnapur in the nearby Aonla constituency, another farmer, Harendra Gangwar, said several of his relatives in Bareilly were unhappy with the BJP. “Though I am a Samajwadi Party voter, several of my family members voted for the BJP in earlier elections because of Santosh ji. This time, this is not the case.”

Several people questioned Chhatrapal Singh’s track record. Though he won the state elections from Baheri, which comes under Pilibhit Lok Sabha constituency, in 2007 and 2017, winning the second time narrowly, he lost to the SP in the 2022 Assembly polls. Till the filing of this report, Chhatrapal Singh did not respond to calls from The Indian Express.

Meanwhile, SP candidate Aron, who is from the Vaishya community, is betting on support from Muslims. Of the 19 lakh voters in the seat, six lakh are from the minority community. To get the Kurmi support, he is receiving help from fellow party leader Bhagwat Saran Gangwar who contested the polls from Pilibhit. “The rejection of the BSP candidate’s nomination has ensured my victory, I have no doubt. If EVMs are not tampered with, no one can stop my victory here,” he said.