When five states – Goa, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Manipur – went to polls starting February 10, the big question was whether the BJP would continue its onslaught or would there be shifts. Barring UP, the Opposition was seen as having a fighting chance. Ultimately, the BJP was voted back to power in four of the five states, overturning many assumptions about how some states voted. As an editorial in The Indian Express noted on result day, the BJP now occupies a “primary role in the country’s politics”, while the Congress, “is inexorably becoming a paler and more shrunken shadow of itself”.
The talking point of the polls, however, was the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)’s thundering win in Punjab, with 92 of the 117 Assembly seats, making it only the third party after the BJP and Congress to be in power in more than one state. Any doubts about whether Arvind Kejriwal would steer his party to the position of the third pole in the country’s politics were laid to rest.
The Agnipath scheme launched on June 14 entailed key changes in recruitment for the Army, particularly annual hiring of a large number for short, four-year stints, provoking protests across the country. With a job in the Army much coveted, especially in the dismal employment scene, the Opposition hoped to ride the anger – which turned violent in states such as UP and Bihar – to success in polls. The BJP too seemed to feel the heat, with the government announcing a two-year relaxation in the upper age limit for application.
From a 21-year-old in Banka, Bihar, who hoped to be the first in his family to get a job, to a 19-year-old from Jammu’s Reasi town who sought to follow his brother into the armed forces, The Indian Express spoke to many young defence aspirants at the time.
However, as elections later would testify, the Opposition’s hopes of political gains came to a naught, including in UP.
June was a charged month in Maharashtra, seeing the fall of the Maha Vikas Aghadi coalition comprising the Shiv Sena, NCP and Congress, led by Uddhav Thackeray. In a political defection drama triggered by the BJP, and which played out from Mumbai to Guwahati, Eknath Shinde secured the support of 40-odd MLAs of the 55 in the Shiv Sena, and became the CM with its support. Devendra Fadnavis took oath as Deputy CM, with the BJP sending a message to potential partners that its Big Brother image also had a genial side.
Defying predictions of its doom post the loss of power, the MVA held together – though the jury is out on whether the coalition will last poll-time pulls and pressures.
With Fadnavis seen as a reluctant deputy in the arrangement with Shinde, tensions also remain in the Shiv Sena-BJP coalition.
What it gained in Maharashtra, the BJP lost in Bihar. Delivering a jolt to the party, the Nitish Kumar-led JD(U) walked out of the NDA and into the welcoming arms of the RJD. Though the BJP never had any illusions regarding Nitish’s lasting loyalty to it, the party had gone out of its way to keep the mercurial JD(U) supremo in good humour – making the latest turnaround by Nitish a shocker for it.
Five years earlier, Nitish had done exactly the opposite – resigning as CM of the Mahagathbandhan alliance with the RJD and Congress, citing corruption allegations. Later, he joined hands with the BJP.
Now back with the RJD, with Tejashwi as his deputy, Nitish has been vociferous in attacking the BJP. He has also dropped hints that he has his eye on the larger national prize, and will be happy leaving the state reins to Tejashwi.
However, as those who know Nitish will tell you, all bets are off on what he does next.
Beaten and bruised, the Congress and particularly Rahul Gandhi are on their most ambitious political initiatives in decades. The Bharat Jodo Yatra that began from Kanyakumari in Tamil Nadu on September 7 has already completed more than 100 days and 3,000 km, on its way to ultimately Kashmir. As far as recasting Rahul’s image as a leader who can go the distance – not a part-time politician, as he is accused of being – the Yatra has been a success. However, the Congress needs more, much more, to matter once again. Whether the Yatra is that vehicle, remains to be seen.
What to do with the problem called Rajasthan? The state is among the last in the Hindi heartland where the Congress remains strong, but perpetually facing blows not only from the BJP but its fractious leaders Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot. In September, the simmering crisis came to the fore once again, when Gehlot’s men went to the extent of defying the central leadership to keep Pilot out. Gehlot lost a chance at Congress presidentship in the process, but in what is a telling picture of the state of the party, the veteran appeared to prefer remaining the CM to helming the creaking Congress.
The Indian Express Associate editor Manoj C G noted, “The Congress leadership – the Gandhi family – were caught off guard by the strategic play by Gehlot who emphatically signalled he would not be a pushover and would like to remain the king in his backyard.”
The central leadership did some sabre-rattling to indicate its displeasure, but Gehlot continues to sit pretty and Pilot continues to sit it out.
The much-awaited, much-talked-about election, despite its foregone conclusion, was held on October 17. As expected, Mallikajun Kharge, who was seen to have the high command’s blessing, won 84.14% of the votes, while challenger Shashi Tharoor got 11.4%. However, many saw a silver lining in the fact that Tharoor even got that many, given the Congress tendency to be a weather vane for the Gandhi family’s likes and dislikes.
Kharge has flexed some muscles as the Congress chief, but Tharoor appears to be paying the price for his defiance.
Telangana Chief Minister and Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) founder K Chandrashekar Rao, popularly known as KCR, has been vocal about his national ambitions at least since 2019, when he first pitched the idea of a non-Congress, non-BJP front. This year, he toured the country, meeting leaders as varied as Nitish and Kejriwal. On October 5, in a continuation of this changeover, he announced that his party would henceforth be called the Bharat Rashtra Samithi.
Before he makes the national leap though, KCR has to cross hurdles in the shape of probes by investigative agencies.
The Samajwadi Party supremo passed away at a hospital in Gurgaon on October 10, following prolonged illness. He was a three-time Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister, eight-term MLA, seven-time MP, and ‘Netaji’ to all, and is credited to have redefined Uttar Pradesh politics,
Born to a farming family in Saifai village of Etawah district, Mulayam was a wrestler-turned-student leader whose personal journey as a politician was closely woven with the political history of UP, including the Mandal-Kamandal politics of the 1980s and 1990s While internal family politics seemed to have resurfaced after Mulayam’s death, the recent win of Akhilesh’s wife Dimple from Mulayam’s former seat, Mainpuri, and the return of Mulayam’s brother Shivpal back into the party fold seemed to suggest smoothening of relations for now.
If the UP win was heartening, the Narendra Modi-led BJP could not have asked for a better end to 2022 than its record Gujarat victory, winning the largest number of seats to a party in the state ever. The win brought the BJP to power in Gujarat for the seventh consecutive time.
The Congress had something to cheer for, in wresting Himachal from the BJP, but this was in line with the state’s tradition of never voting in an incumbent, and with the BJP only narrowly behind it.
And, if the beginning of the year marked the arrival of the AAP, the conversation continued with the December polls. The results might have been far subdued than the party’s noise suggested, but the AAP registered a presence in Gujarat, and with it became a national party.