In Bihar battle second round today, a big test for JD(U); 5 Lok Sabha seats at stake

Seemanchal

Kishanganj: The constituency is currently with the Congress’s Mohammed Javed and is likely to see a three-way fight between him, the JD(U)’s Master Mujahid, and the Asaduddin Owaisi-led AIMIM’s Akhatarul Iman.

With Hindu votes in the constituency, where Muslims constitute 72% of the population, expected to polarise in Mujahid’s favour, he will be relying on any anti-incumbency factor against Javed and Akhtarul Imam splitting the Muslim votes that would have otherwise gone to the Congress. Imam polled almost three lakh votes in 2019 while Javed’s victory margin was 34,461 votes.

Bihar CM Nitish Kumar and Deputy CM Samrat Chaudhary with BJP leader Ravi Shankar Prasad. (File Photo)

Katihar: This is one constituency in the region that the JD(U) may find hard to retain because of strong anti-incumbency against sitting MP Dulalchand Gowami. The party will hope to ride to victory on the back of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity and the consolidation of the upper castes, the Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), and the non-Yadav Other Backward Classes (OBCs).

With the Muslim-Yadav combination remaining intact in Katihar, where 42% of the population are Muslims, it will be the main foundation for Congress candidate Tariq Ahmed.

Purnia: This constituency is likely to witness a three-way fight between JD(U) MP Santosh Kushwaha, the RJD’s Bima Bharati, and Independent candidate Rajiv Ranjan alias Pappu Yadav. The contest hinges on how Pappu Yadav performs and if he ends up damaging the RJD or the BJP more. For Kushwaha, the challenge is to consolidate the EBC-Mahadalit votes in his favour.

Araria: This Seemanchal seat, which has more than 45% Muslims, votes in the third phase on May 7. For long it has been associated with the late RJD heavyweight and former MP Mohammed Taslimuddin. This time, his son Mohammed Shahnawaz of the RJD is up against BJP MP Pradeep Singh, the EBC face.

But Shahnawaz may find it hard to keep the Yadav votes intact as the seat has a history of a chunk of Yadav votes shifting because of polarisation. Here, the RJD candidate is reaching out to young voters on the jobs plank spelt out by party leader Tejashwi Yadav.

Bhagalpur

This seat will see a contest between the Congress’s Ajit Sharma and sitting JD(U) MP Ajay Mandal. The entry of Sharma, an upper-caste Bhumihar who is the current Bhagalpur MLA, seems to have sharply divided upper-caste voters who are otherwise traditional NDA voters.

“Even though we are supporting the JD(U), there is a lack of enthusiasm among the BJP cadre. While the BJP’s urban vote base may still vote for Mandal in the name of Narendra Modi. He will also depend on fellow EBC Gangota (about 2.5 lakh) votes besides the support of OBC Kushwahas, Scheduled Castes, and upper castes. Non-Gangota EBC votes and the upper castes will be the decider,” said a BJP worker.

Banka

This constituency will witness a battle of two Yadavs. Sitting JD(U) MP Giridhari Yadav faces a challenge from the RJD’s Jaiprakash Narayan Yadav. Like Bhagalpur, this constituency also seems to have particularly divided the upper castes.

Girdhari Yadav is facing anti-incumbency, including from a section of upper castes over his past statements about “upper castes never supporting him” and for his anti-RSS statements when he was part of the Mahagathbandhan. Some local JD(U) MLAs have also stayed away from his campaign.

In the village of Ramchua, a Rajput-dominated village in the constituency’s Amarpur Assembly segment, people are sharply divided between the two parties. While there is ample support for the RJD, others argue voting for it would mean the “return of jungle raj” in Banka. “Modi alone will make us decide, most of us will eventually end up voting in the name of Narendra Modi”, said Rajnish Singh, a progressive farmer.