Neither JD(U) nor RJD, in Purnia all eyes on Pappu Yadav: Will he be king or kingmaker?

Pappu Yadav first made news when he joined the Congress last month amid speculation that the Opposition party would field him from the constituency. But the Congress’s Mahagathbandhan ally RJD refused to give up the constituency, making Pappu announce his decision to contest as an Independent against the Santosh Kushwaha and RJD candidate Bima Bharati, a JD(U) rebel.

A popular figure in Purnia, having won from here as an MP in the early 1990s, he is seen as more likely to cut into the RJD’s traditional vote base of Muslims and Yadavs (M-Y) rather than the JD(U)’s constituency of forward castes, non-Yadav OBCs, and Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs). The former MP has also been drawing a good response from Muslims and Yadav who together have more than six lakh votes. Against this backdrop, RJD leader and former Deputy Chief Minister Tejashwi Yadav told the crowd at a public meeting on Monday, “If you are not supporting Bima Bharati, let the JD(U) win.”

For the former MP, who started his political career in Purnia in the early 1990s, this marks an attempt to regain his political relevance at a place where he hit the highs of electoral success three decades ago. In 1991, Yadav won from the Lok Sabha seat as an Independent but the election was countermanded amid allegations of poll rigging. He won again in the election held subsequently and retained Purnia in the 1996 parliamentary elections, this time on a Samajwadi Party (SP) ticket. He was named a prime accused in the murder of former MLA Ajit Sarkar of the CPI(M) in 1998 and the case followed him around for the next decade and a half. In 2013, the Patna High Court finally acquitted Yadav in the case.

“Pappu Yadav may well be surrounded mostly by his volunteers from outside Bihar, he has been surely making the buzz because of his old connect, his social service, especially helping out poor people with medical treatment,” said Rakesh Kumar, the resident of Dhamdaha block in Purnia district.

“The JD(U) should have reasons to smile because Pappu is likely to make a serious dent in Bima’s votes. But he can pull off a surprise by getting votes across religious and caste limes. His victory depends a lot more on what he gets besides M-Y votes. If he can get a good chunk of upper caste and Scheduled Caste votes, he can upset Kushwaha,” said Raghuvar Sada in Banmankhi block, about 20 km from Dhamdaha, who is from the Musahar SC community. Purnia has more than 1.5 lakh Mushahar voters. The former MP who has been hitting all nooks and corners of the constituency said at a recent public meeting, “I have been saying all along that I am a son of Purnia. Those who tried to politically finish me should come here to see the overwhelming public support I enjoy.”

But at the end of the day, it remains a tall task for the Independent to upset calculations and defeat the JD(U), which won Purnia with a 54.85% vote share in 2019 and a 41.15% vote share in 2014. Kushwaha is banking on the non-Yadav OBC votes of Kushwahas, Banias, non-Gangota EBCs, and Dalits, besides depending on the traditional upper-caste votes, especially Rajputs and Brahmins, which usually go to the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

Meanwhile, Bharati, the Rupauli MLA who is from the Gangota community, is hoping that party president Lalu Prasad’s popularity would propel her forward in the contest. “Our voters are committed to the idea of a secular India. There are some rumour mongers but victory will be ours,” she said at a campaign event on Monday.

For Bharati, Pappu Yadav presents the biggest challenge that she has to surmount if she has to stand a chance at pulling off an upset. “Bima Bharati’s main concerns are Pappu Yadav fast threatening to make inroads into the RJD’s Muslim-Yadav base and EBCs, minus her own Gangota community, quite not gelling with her. She does not look to move too much beyond Rupauli,” said Ravikant Ravi, a resident of K Haat in Purnia.