Opinion Virus seems to be on decline. But there is no scope for complacency or ending use of masks

The Centre has done the right thing in directing states to ease the curbs that had been put in place to deal with the pandemic’s third wave. With the country registering about 30,000 cases in the last three days, a steep fall from the peak of 3.4 lakh cases on January 23, it would be safe to say that the worst of the Omicron-driven wave is over. However, given the virus’s well-known propensity to spring surprises, caution must continue. Though several countries have lifted their mask mandates, experts have rightly pointed out that it’s not yet time to ditch the most elementary defence against the virus. The caveat is especially salutary for a densely populated country such as India. Prime Minister Modi’s counsel last year — “we have to wear masks in the same way as we wear shoes when we step out” — rings true even today. The government’s latest advisory has done well to reiterate the importance of masks.

There is no consensus amongst epidemiologists on whether Omicron signals the endgame of the virus. A section of them do believe that Covid is on its way to becoming endemic but there’s no clarity on how long this transition might take and how the pathogen is likely to behave in this interim period. The WHO has warned that the emergence of variants more infectious than Omicron cannot be ruled out. Though experts concur that the virus is less likely to cause the havoc it wreaked last year, they also caution that waning immunity from vaccines — or past infection — could work to the pathogen’s advantage. With close to 80 per cent of the country’s adult population having received both shots of the Covid vaccine, India has done better than several developed countries. However, paediatric vaccination is limited to the 15-18 age group and the drive has progressed in fits and starts. Only a fraction of the country’s adult population is so far eligible for the third or “precautionary” dose. This when several studies have shown that boosters prolong immunity substantially. Some experts have also talked of the periodic administration of boosters, especially to the vulnerable and immunocompromised, to safeguard against Covid episodes. India shouldn’t be an outlier to such conversations.

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In December last year, about the time Omicron had begun to surface in the country, the Covid taskforce had flagged the decline in mask use after the ebbing of the second wave. A false sense of security had also taken hold of a Covid-weary population before the pandemic took a catastrophic turn last summer. The public health information system must, therefore, keep driving home the message of caution — in fact, become more forceful when the virus is on the retreat. This must be complemented by a disease surveillance system that’s alert to the virus’s changing characteristics. The confrontation with Covid has entered a new phase, it’s not yet over.

This editorial first appeared in the print edition on February 18, 2022 under the title ‘It’s not yet over’.