Opinion Express View | US Midterm elections: The expected Republican wave did not materialise

The broad trends from the mid-term elections in the United States make at least two things clear. First, the much-anticipated Republican sweep of the American legislature has not materialised. Republicans will likely wrest a narrow majority in Congress but Democrats seem poised to hold on to the Senate in a neck-and-neck race. The close election bucks the trend of Democrats facing routs when they controlled the White House — in both 1994 and 2010 (when Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were in office), they lost considerable ground in the mid-terms. This is significant also because Joe Biden’s popularity stands deeply diminished and inflation — at over 8 per cent — is causing economic and financial distress.

Second, and equally significant, is what was known anecdotally and has now been confirmed electorally: American politics is far from being in a post-Donald Trump era. His imprimatur was visible in the Republican campaign and will continue to shape US politics until at least the 2024 general elections. At least half of the Republican candidates were “election deniers” who claim that the 2020 presidential polls were rigged in favour of Biden and the Democrats. It was this rhetoric that led to January 6, 2021, Capitol riots in Washington. Trump is expected to announce his candidature for president soon, which means that the rhetoric around electoral legitimacy and “voter fraud” — the latter, often seen as racist, white supremacist dog-whistle — is likely to continue. The political message from the American voter, however, indicates that neither the Dobbs verdict (taking away the right to abortion) nor election denial has yielded the expected political dividends. But while there may not have been a “red wave”, there is certainly a turning of the tide. The Republicans, it would seem, are committed to Trumpism.

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The next two years in US politics are likely to see battles between the legislature and executive, between Congress and the White House. For the Biden administration — which has managed to pass some progressive legislation on climate change and gun control — this could mean little productivity. This could also have implications for just how much room for manoeuvre the current president will have on key global issues. Climate change is of particular concern in this regard. The Trump White House had backed away from US commitments under the Paris Accord — something Biden largely reversed after he assumed office. The Ukraine war has also seen the US resume its international role and support to NATO. Trump’s perceived soft spot for Putin’s Russia and the appearance of a divided house may have a bearing on the international conversation on the contours of that conflict as well.