Rabi (winter-spring) crops, especially wheat, have been vulnerable in recent times to mercury spikes in March, just when they are in the stage of final grain formation and filling. The last two years, however, have seen temperatures ruling well above average in October and November, during the time of sowing itself. Average minimum and mean temperatures over the country this October were the highest ever for the month, as per the records of the India Meteorological Department. November, too, registered the second and third highest maximum and mean temperatures respectively. All this has impacted overall rabi plantings, which were lagging behind till mid-November. There has been a recovery since, with the winter finally setting in. But that’s unlikely to help mustard or potato, whose sowing window shuts by the first fortnight of November.
This raises concerns over the production of rabi crops, which require relatively low temperatures for proper germination and vegetative growth. While delayed sowing shouldn’t affect yields in wheat and most other crops (barring the two mentioned earlier), that is, nevertheless, conditional upon an extended winter and no “Ides of March” heatwave causing premature ripening. The hope here is from a La Niña, which most global weather models are forecasting to develop by this month-end to persist through January-March. La Niña events usually bring copious rains and colder-than-normal winters to India. The IMD, on its part, is warning of above-normal minimum as well as maximum temperatures during the upcoming winter season (December-February) “over most parts of the country”. It adds up to an uncertain picture. This was unlike till a couple of months ago, when a bumper rabi on top of a good kharif harvest seemed likely — thanks to surplus monsoon rains that helped fill up major dam reservoirs and recharge groundwater aquifers.
