Opinion A chance for peace
Syria’s Eid peace bid shows that both great powers have learnt important lessons
A general view shows the damage in the Ramousah area of southern Aleppo, after forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad advanced in it, Syria, in this handout picture provided by SANA on September 9, 2016. SANA/Handout via REUTERS 
From Tuesday morning, Eid-ul-Adha, Syria will get one more chance at peace. The Russia-United States deal signed last week seeks to impose a limited ceasefire, opening the way for a dialogue between the actors the two great powers have been supporting. The detailed protocols, which both sides have agreed to, will not be made public. From leaked early drafts of the discussions, though, the broad contours of the deal are known. In essence, Russian and Syrian forces will cease air attacks on areas where anti-government insurgents are located — other than the al Qaeda affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra, now rebranded Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, and the Islamic State. Given that the battlefield is fluid, Russia may use its airpower “outside of designated areas if Nusra acquires territory there”, and, in consultation with the United States. In the event that there is a reduction in violence, Russia and the United States will set up a Joint Implementation Centre in Amman, Jordan, to chart a future course.
The fate of the deal will rest on events on two slivers of territory in bitterly-contested Aleppo. First, insurgents and the government will have to maintain the critical Castello road route as a demilitarised zone, open to all parties. Further, insurgents must hold back their al-Nusra partners from attacking the Ramouseh Gap, another key sliver of territory that offers access to Aleppo from the south-west — and has changed hands three times in recent weeks. No one knows just how this will work in practice. Ahrar al-Sham, among the largest Islamist groups in the rebels, has criticised the agreement for “singling out” al-Nusra, but stopped short of rejecting the ceasefire. The United States, for its part, has warned the insurgents of “dire consequences” if they cooperate with al-Nusra.
For all its problems, though, the Russia-US deal shows both great powers have learned important lessons. The US has come to realise that the insurgency it backed, cheered on by Western human rights groups, has provided opportunity to jihadists who endanger regional and global security. For its part, Russia has learned President Bashar al-Asad’s forces are too weak, and lack the legitimacy, to retake all Syria. The 2,80,000 people who have died, and 5 million who have been displaced, are each a reason for political forces in Syria to embrace this reality — and reconciliation.
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