Opinion UPs predictable unpredictability
There was a half-page advertisement celebrating Rahul Gandhis success in UP (a specific reference to Firozabad,where Raj Babbar defeated...
There was a half-page advertisement celebrating Rahul Gandhis success in UP (a specific reference to Firozabad,where Raj Babbar defeated Mulayams daughter-in-law) about the future being more than just about caste and community,and about development and progress. There are no regulation stamp-size pictures of the Congress president or PM alongside Rahuls dimpled smile. Raj Thackeray will get angry when he sees it,as the ad has been issued by the South Mumbai District Congress Committee,and has a suggestion that Maharashtra and UP are part of the same country. Other me-too ads will doubtless follow. But besides being a way of cosying up to the Amethi MP,this ad suggests a clear acknowledgement in the Congress on the importance of good news from Uttar Pradesh if the Congress is to grow into its own,nationally.
In political tutorials,UP,with 80 parliamentary seats has never been underestimated. Those who ruled Delhi did it via Lucknow,as that popular Lucknow MP,Atal Behari Vajpayee never tired of saying. However,since 1999,this axiom of Indian politics was not considered valid. UP picked the ruling party in the Centre directly till 1999,but after that,voters in UP were said to have been paralysed in the caste bog. Analysts concluded that finding candidates to vote for in UP was like voters choosing grooms for daughters,caste,kin,gotra,all being central,if unstated criteria. UP,in the past decade,was seen as stuck in a trap which would ensure that governance (as understood in cities),for example,would never be important. Bihar,with broader coalitions,was seen as more radical historically. Even now,there is space for Nitish Kumar (seen as more radical,a doer in many ways who wanted to take politics forward no pun intended) to push the envelope beyond simple caste arithmetic.
However,what has been forgotten is how radical,shifty and surprising UP has always been. Of course,from 1946 till 1967,it was steady,stable Congress rule,with patronage politics playing out smoothly. In 1967,as the wave of anti-Congressism first spread,this was also seen in UP,which saw a non-Congress CM being elected that year. Post-1969,as Indira Gandhi went about centralising things,she (with H.N. Bahugunas support) reinvented the party in UP leading to improved results for the Congress in the rest of the country.
All the way until 1977,in Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha polls,the ruling party at the centre was provided the numbers by UP. In 1971,when Indira Gandhi swept nationally,it was riding on the back of 73 out of then-78 UP seats. More dramatic was the time when UP changed its mind in 1977,and the party scored a neat duck,out of a then total of 85 seats. If more evidence is required of UPs power to shock,it was just three years later,when the Congress comeback in 1980 rode on UP,with 51 seats out of 85. The next election,right after Indira Gandhis assassination saw more than 400 seats for the Congress nationally,and UP contributed 83 seats. Conversely,when the ground shook under the GoPs feet,the tremors were begun and sustained by UP. When the drift in UP started,with the Janta lehar backward classes,Dalits and minorities,confused and restless,looked for alternatives,it was the beginning of the weakest and longest phase out of government for the Congress,reflected again in UPs results. 1989 was a dramatic slump for the Congress tally,down from 83 in 1984 to 15 five years on. In 1991,the Congress did manage to form a minority government at the centre,but the Congress got a mere 5 MPs from UP. Conversely,for the BJP,the only time it has been able to nurse national ambitions was when it held the cards in UP in 1991 it had 51 seats,which hovered in that range till 1999.
In the state elections too,UP has experimented,displayed vibrancy and shown very stunning results at each election,not just boring swings between two parties in 1992-3,the SP-BSP combine secured a big victory for the underdog,pipping the then-invincible BJP. The BJP-BSP combination got a chance,then it was BJP along with fragments of other parties (Loktantrik this-and-that) which won,and then forces led by the SP had a run,and finally in 2007 Mayawatis single party government was elected. In the 2009 national elections though,the BSP was dragged down to the third position and underdog Congress was snapping at Mulayam Singhs heels.
Nationally,2004 was a year with a difference,when both the Congress and the BJP performed below par in UP. The BJP was swept out of the national race and the Congress made it only when it got the support of 61 Left MPs. So,as all strategists will tell the Congress high command,which is anxious to shake off coalition allies and has aspirations of making it on its own,keeping UP onside is very important in dictating terms nationally. UP strategy will decide its ability to leverage nationally in effect,that makes it very clear why the bangle town of Firozabad is exciting the South Mumbai Congress Committee or even the Tirunelveli or Goalpokhar Congress Committee. Coalitions have never come easily to the Congress blood-type. Those who do business with the Congress seem to rely on personalities (the Congress president) to help the wheels of seat-sharing move ahead but its always a reluctant and sullen local Congress that talks seats.
If anecdotal evidence is to be made much of from the recent bypolls,then the fact of the Yadav vote not voting in a predictable way is what has been a rude shock for the SP. What has turned the loyal Muslim vote away from them is their confidence that a vote away from SP is no longer a vote for the BJP,the parameters of the ruling vs. opposition framework have changed from between the SP and the BJP see-saw to a new one,Congress versus the BSP. The language of this debate promises to be different,and it is led on either side by two very determined and somewhat enigmatic people,about whose innermost strategies,despite hagiographic accounts every now and then,very little is actually known. What we do know is that both believe in taking the battle head-on,and leading it personally. Whatever the outcome,it promises to be a gripping watch and,as per UPs forgotten traditions,a surprise.
seema.chishti@expressindia.com
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